Championship

Championship | Gameweek 45

Apr 27, 2024 at 3pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
0 - 1
Stoke

Stephens (42'), Brooks (44')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Campbell (36')
Cundle (38')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Southampton and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

Last Game: Leicester 5-0 Southampton
Tuesday, April 23 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Stoke City

All competitions

Last Game: Stoke 3-0 Plymouth
Saturday, April 20 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Southampton 3-1 Stoke City

Stoke will be confident of causing an upset on the back of Southampton's defeat at Leicester. However, the Saints have performed far more consistently on home turf, leading us to predict a fairly-dominant victory for Martin's side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 72.3%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 11.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 3-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.12%), while for a Stoke City win it was 1-2 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Stoke City
72.3% ( 0.14)	15.9% ( -0.05)	11.81% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 57.37% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.06% (

0.03)

30.94% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.68% (

0.03)

52.32% (

-0.03)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.53% (

0.04)

7.47% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.16% (

0.09)

26.84% (

-0.08)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62% (

-0.11)

38% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.24% (

-0.11)

74.76% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Southampton 72.3%

Stoke City 11.81%

Draw 15.9%

Southampton	Draw	Stoke City
2-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 7.99% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.36% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.36% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.51% ( -0) 5-2 @ 1.3% ( 0) 6-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.83% Total : 72.3%	1-1 @ 7.12% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 2.84% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.22% Total : 15.9%	1-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.73% Total : 11.81%