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Luton Town
Championship | Gameweek 10
Oct 19, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Kenilworth Road Stadium
Watford logo

Luton
3 - 0
Watford

Clark (11'), Morris (47'), Brown (90+1')
Clark (16'), Doughty (35'), Hashioka (61')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Issouf Bayo (6'), Porteous (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Luton Town and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sheff Utd 2-0 Luton
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Watford 2-1 Middlesbrough
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Luton Town 2-1 Watford

While Watford may be enjoying a strong start under Cleverley, we cannot ignore their form away from Vicarage Road. With that in mind, Luton could edge this contest by the odd goal in three, kick-starting their campaign and relieving some pressure on Edwards in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Watford had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.

Result
Luton TownDrawWatford
43.34% (0.381 0.38) 25% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08) 31.66% (-0.295 -0.29)
Both teams to score 56.51% (0.159 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.26% (0.26300000000001 0.26)46.74% (-0.261 -0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31% (0.246 0.25)69% (-0.244 -0.24)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.43% (0.288 0.29)21.58% (-0.287 -0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.34% (0.441 0.44)54.66% (-0.439 -0.44)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.06% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)27.94% (0.064 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.43% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)63.57% (0.081000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 43.34%
    Watford 31.66%
    Draw 24.99%
Luton TownDrawWatford
1-0 @ 9.25% (-0.020999999999999 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.04% (0.041 0.04)
2-0 @ 7.09% (0.045 0.04)
3-1 @ 4.62% (0.061000000000001 0.06)
3-0 @ 3.62% (0.054 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.95% (0.034 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.77% (0.039 0.04)
4-0 @ 1.39% (0.033 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.13% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 43.34%
1-1 @ 11.78% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 6.03% (-0.066 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.76% (0.016 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.99%
0-1 @ 7.69% (-0.098 -0.1)
1-2 @ 7.52% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.9% (-0.072 -0.07)
1-3 @ 3.19% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.45% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 2.08% (-0.034 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.02% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 31.66%

How you voted: Luton vs Watford

Luton Town
45.3%
Draw
14.0%
Watford
40.7%
86
Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 39
Luton
2-0
Watford
Osho (28'), Campbell (90+1')
Oct 23, 2022 12pm
Gameweek 17
Watford
4-0
Luton
Davis (3'), Troost-Ekong (45'), Pedro (57'), Sarr (79')
Apr 17, 2021 12.30pm
Gameweek 42
Luton
1-0
Watford
Collins (78' pen.)
Bradley (28'), Berry (80')

Femenia (72'), Troost-Ekong (75'), Sierralta (76')
Femenia (88')
Sep 26, 2020 12.30pm
Gameweek 3
Watford
1-0
Luton
Pedro (35')

Pearson (75'), Norrington-Davies (90+3')
Apr 9, 2006 3pm
Watford
1-1
Luton
King (36')
Doyley (76'), King (90')
Brkovic (73')
Showunmi (37'), Howard (42'), Heikkinen (51')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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