Luton2 - 1Derby
Form, Standings, Stats
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in Championship
for
Friday, December 13 at 8pm in Championship
for
We said: Luton Town 2-1 Derby County
Despite their overall recent struggles, Luton are still a formidable opponent in front of their Kenilworth Road crowd, especially if the supporters have something to cheer about. Derby are notoriously poor on their second-tier travels and without the talents of Cashin in the side, we envisage the Rams suffering a narrow defeat in Bedfordshire. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Derby County |
47.64% ( 1.01) | 26.1% ( 0.01) | 26.25% ( -1.02) |
| Both teams to score 49.63% ( -0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.87% ( -0.66) | 54.13% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.45% ( -0.56) | 75.55% ( 0.55) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.27% ( 0.18) | 22.72% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.6% ( 0.26) | 56.39% ( -0.27) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.23% ( -1.19) | 35.77% ( 1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.46% ( -1.24) | 72.54% ( 1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 12.04% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.32)3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.93% Total : 47.64% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.1% | 0-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.11)Other @ 1.96% Total : 26.25% |
