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Championship | Gameweek 11
Oct 7, 2023 at 3pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Watford logo

Cardiff
1 - 1
Watford

FT(HT: 1-0)
Issouf Bayo (54')
Sierralta (39'), Lewis (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Cardiff City and Watford, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Sunderland 2-0 Watford
Wednesday, October 4 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Cardiff City 2-1 Watford

With Cardiff having lost out at Middlesbrough, Watford will sense an opportunity to get back on track. Nevertheless, the Welsh side have been excellent at home this season and we cannot envisage Watford getting over the line, even if they do prove to be competitive. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 50.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Watford had a probability of 23.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.

Result
Cardiff CityDrawWatford
50.27% (0.509 0.51) 26.24% (-0.151 -0.15) 23.48% (-0.36 -0.36)
Both teams to score 46.71% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.34% (0.246 0.25)56.66% (-0.248 -0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.38% (0.198 0.2)77.62% (-0.2 -0.2)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.38% (0.331 0.33)22.62% (-0.333 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.77% (0.491 0.49)56.23% (-0.492 -0.49)
Watford Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.36% (-0.202 -0.2)39.64% (0.201 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.68% (-0.185 -0.18)76.32% (0.18299999999999 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Cardiff City 50.27%
    Watford 23.48%
    Draw 26.24%
Cardiff CityDrawWatford
1-0 @ 13.32%
2-0 @ 9.91% (0.101 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.17% (0.042999999999999 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.91% (0.097 0.1)
3-1 @ 4.54% (0.066 0.07)
3-2 @ 2.1% (0.019 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.82% (0.054 0.05)
4-1 @ 1.69% (0.041 0.04)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 50.27%
1-1 @ 12.33% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 8.97% (-0.086 -0.09)
2-2 @ 4.24% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Other @ 0.71%
Total : 26.24%
0-1 @ 8.3% (-0.126 -0.13)
1-2 @ 5.71% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-2 @ 3.84% (-0.079 -0.08)
1-3 @ 1.76% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-3 @ 1.31% (-0.008 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.18% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.39%
Total : 23.48%

How you voted: Cardiff vs Watford

Cardiff City
71.4%
Draw
14.3%
Watford
14.3%
42
Head to Head
Apr 19, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 43
Watford
1-3
Cardiff
Sarr (11')
Etete (31'), Kipre (35'), Kaba (42')
Nov 2, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Cardiff
1-2
Watford
Kipre (9')
Sierralta (38'), Sarr (59')
Mar 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 36
Cardiff
1-2
Watford
Sierralta (14' og.)
Bacuna (81'), Ng (90+2')
Chalobah (15'), Masina (90+3')
Bachmann (39'), Hughes (45+1'), Sarr (82'), Sierralta (85')
Dec 5, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 16
Watford
0-1
Cardiff

Perica (89')
Moore (43')
Ojo (60'), Ralls (66')
Feb 22, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 27
Cardiff
1-5
Watford
Bamba (82')
Paterson (85')
Deulofeu (18', 61', 63'), Deeney (73', 91')
Capoue (30'), Pereyra (55')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd21145230111945
2Leeds UnitedLeeds21126337152242
3Burnley2111822681841
4Sunderland21117332171540
5Blackburn RoversBlackburn2011452517837
6Middlesbrough21104735251034
7Watford2010462926334
8West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom2171132416832
9Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds218582630-429
10Swansea CitySwansea217682322127
11Bristol City216962626027
12Norwich CityNorwich216873632426
13Millwall206772018225
14Derby CountyDerby216692626024
15Coventry CityCoventry216692730-324
16Preston North EndPreston2141162127-623
17Stoke CityStoke215792328-522
18Queens Park RangersQPR2141072127-622
19Luton TownLuton2164112337-1422
20Oxford UnitedOxford Utd2046102133-1218
21Cardiff CityCardiff2046101932-1318
22Portsmouth193882134-1317
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth2045111942-2317
24Hull City2137111930-1116


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