Having stalled at the end of 2020, Napoli travel to out-of-form Cagliari on Sunday looking for all three points to keep them in touch with Serie A's top four.
Their Sardinian hosts have plummeted down the standings after failing to win in the league since early November, while Gennaro Gattuso's visitors are now nine points off top spot following three games without victory.
Match preview
© Reuters
The short-lived Christmas break gave respite to Napoli, as their Serie A fortunes took something of a nosedive in the final weeks of the year, though they did seal Europa League progress from a testing group.
Successive losses against close rivals Inter and Lazio were followed by a disappointing home draw with Torino, in which Lorenzo Insigne bailed the Partenopei out of trouble by virtue of his fifth goal of the campaign.
With injuries piling up and results taking a turn for the worse, at least coach Gennaro Gattuso could take solace from the club's successful third appeal against a forfeited three points - plus one point penalty - for failing to face Juventus after a COVID-19 outbreak.
The CONI (Italian National Olympic Committee) ruling effectively gave Napoli back a point and offers them a chance to play the game with Juve at a later date.
They also face the defending champions twice more in the upcoming weeks - both in the league and the Supercoppa Italiana - so will welcome a less challenging start to 2021, with fixtures against struggling Cagliari, then Spezia, Udinese, Empoli (in the cup) and Fiorentina to come.
In all, Gattuso has a strong base to build on, as his side are fifth in the standings - just ahead of Juventus - and have a game in hand on those above them.
They can also boast the best defensive record in the top flight so far, with only 12 goals conceded and five clean sheets registered in the process.
© Reuters
After their disastrous close to the calendar year, Cagliari currently occupy 15th place in the league - now only four ahead of Genoa in the relegation zone.
Eusebio Di Francesco's team set out with lofty aims and playing a carefree form of the beautiful game, but things turned sour in late autumn as their form fell off a cliff.
It is no secret why Gli Isolani have faltered so badly, as not only have their previously prolific forwards hit a brick wall in terms of goalscoring, theirs is the fourth-worst defence in Serie A this term - with 27 goals conceded.
Without a win in seven games, in a period when they have collected only four points while losing to Roma, Juventus and Inter, the Rossoblu have suffered from the ongoing absence - through illness and injury - of veteran centre-back Diego Godin.
Although his abilities are clearly in decline, the former Atletico Madrid stalwart still brings a wealth of experience and organisational qualities to the team and has been missed in recent weeks. Therefore, the return of club icon Radja Nainggolan on loan from Inter this week could prove a crucial signing.
Even if the inspirational midfielder is ready to start, the visit of Napoli this week will see Cagliari's toiling back line once again under threat from a Serie A big boy with a point to prove - and three points to earn - so the prospects of a quick turnaround are slim.
Cagliari Serie A form: DDLDDL
Napoli Serie A form: WWWLLD
Napoli form (all competitions): WDWLLD
Team News
© Reuters
Napoli defensive lynchpin Kalidou Koulibaly is unlikely to return from a thigh strain in time for Sunday's trip to Sardinia and star forward Dries Mertens (ankle) is also out of action until at least next week.
Striker Victor Osimhen's shoulder injury persists after recent surgery so he is unlikely to be recalled to the squad just yet, while full-back Kevin Malcuit is nursing a calf issue.
Midfielder Diego Demme will be fit in time, but Fabian Ruiz and Tiemoue Bakayoko are favoured to be the central pairing in Gattuso's 4-2-3-1 setup.
Cagliari duo Ragnar Klavan and Simone Aresti have returned negative COVID-19 tests and should be set to return to Di Francesco's squad. However, influential defender Godin has suffered a minor calf problem in training and is now a doubt for this weekend's game.
Former Napoli man Marko Rog recently ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament, so the Rossoblu must cope without their influential midfielder for the rest of the 2020-21 campaign.
With Rog now missing, fan favourite Radja Nainggolan has re-signed from Inter just in time and will compete with Uruguayan midfielder Christian Oliva for a role at the heart of the Cagliari engine room.
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Zappa, Walukiewicz, Godin, Lykogiannis; Marin, Oliva; Nandez, Pedro, Sottil; Simeone
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Ospina; Di Lorenzo, Manolas, Maksimovic, Rui; Bakayoko, Ruiz; Lozano, Zielinski, Insigne; Petagna
We say: Cagliari 1-2 Napoli
To have any chance of being in the mix for Scudetto glory - and at the very least, to keep pace with their fellow top-four contenders - Napoli must win fixtures such as this.
While a trip to Sardinian soil is rarely straightforward for opponents, Cagliari's defence has been absent without leave this term and could get them in deep trouble again this Sunday.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 64.14%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 15.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.01%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-0 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
