Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 64.14%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 15.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.01%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-0 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
