Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 43.19%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.