Bayern Munich take on Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday, with the league leaders looking to bounce back after a hugely disappointing week.
Freiburg, meanwhile, have recorded five Bundesliga wins in a row for the first time in their history, so travel to Munich full of confidence.
Match preview
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Having overturned a two-goal deficit at home to Mainz 05 in their first game back after the winter break, it appeared as though normal order was being restored when Bayern raced into a two-goal lead of their own via Robert Lewandowski's penalty and Leon Goretzka's long-range effort at Borussia Monchengladbach last Friday.
However, Hansi Flick's side continued to defend with their dangerously high line, with Jonas Hofmann twice showing the composure and movement which has recently helped earn the Germany winger his first international caps by twice dispatching past Manuel Neuer in one-versus-one situations to level proceedings after the break.
Florian Neuhaus was guilty of a careless handball to allow Lewandowski to open the scoring in the first half, but the talented midfielder showed exactly why Bayern have been linked with a summer transfer move for him with a superb strike into the top corner to give his side the lead. Surprisingly, Gladbach were comfortable thereafter and rarely looked like conceding to hold out for a massive 3-2 win.
Bayern's week went from bad to worse at second-tier Holstein Kiel in the DFB-Pokal on Wednesday, meanwhile, with the Bavarians losing 6-5 on penalties after Hauke Wahl's last-minute equaliser sensationally tied the game 2-2.
Flick may console himself with the fact that his side now have fewer games to concentrate on in an already congested season, but it does mean that there will be no repeat of last season's historic treble. Clearly, his side must begin defending better if they are to have a chance of retaining their main two prizes.
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Everything is relative in life, with football certainly being no different, but morale is clearly higher at Freiburg at present, with five straight Bundesliga wins for the first time in the club's history lifting Christian Streich's side to eighth place in the table.
Streich's side were simply superb on their way to thrashing FC Koln 5-0 last weekend, moving 12 points clear of the 16th-placed strugglers to surely put any relegation concerns firmly to bed this season.
Indeed, with the form and results they are currently producing, aims of competing in European football for the first time since losing in the Europa League third qualifying round in the 2017-18 season may be a more realistic target.
Ermedin Demirovic in particular is playing superbly at present, opening the scoring against Koln after leaping like a salmon, before laying on two assists for Roland Sallai and Philipp Lienhart after Nicolas Hofler had doubled Freiburg's lead. Lucas Holer, who has been dropped to the bench in recent weeks having previously been one of the first names on the teamsheet, which highlights Streich's increasing strength in depth at the club, confirmed the rout with a decisive finish with 11 minutes remaining.
Extending their winning run is undoubtedly a big ask given the difficulty of facing Bayern, but if Freiburg can continue to counter-press and transition as effectively as they have of late, there is no reason why they cannot give the reigning European and Bundesliga champions a stern test.
Bayern Munich Bundesliga form: DDWWWL
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): DWWWLL
Freiburg Bundesliga form: DWWWWW
Freiburg form (all competitions): WWWLWW
Team News
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Bayern are likely to remain without Serge Gnabry and Tanguy Nianzou through injury, but otherwise Flick appears to have a clean bill of health to choose from.
The Bavarians' healthier injury picture than most other sides in the league makes their recent lack of form all the more surprising, but Flick is likely to stick with his strongest XI.
Freiburg, meanwhile, will not have Kwon Chang-hoon, Jonathan Schmid, Gian-Luca Itter or Mark Flekken available for the trip to Munich.
Streich is unlikely to change the side which performed to an incredibly high level against Koln, with Sallai and Vincenzo Grifo set to play a key part on the counter-attack down each flank.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Alaba, Davies; Goretzka, Kimmich; Sane, Muller, Coman; Lewandowski
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gulde; Kubler, Santamaria, Hofler, Gunter; Sallai, Demirovic, Grifo
We say: Bayern Munich 3-2 Freiburg
Bayern have conceded in each of their last 10 Bundesliga games, while Freiburg have scored 16 goals in their five successive victories alone, so it is certainly difficult to envisage Flick's side keeping a clean sheet.
We expect back-to-back losses to have sufficiently shaken the Bavarians up to provide a positive reaction, though, with Freiburg's winning run likely to cruelly come to an end as a result if that does indeed prove to be the case.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 85.3%. A draw had a probability of 9.3% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 5.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.13%) and 4-0 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.97%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (1.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
