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Mali national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Round of 16
Jan 30, 2024 at 5pm UK
Amadou Gon Coulibaly Stadium
Burkina Faso national football team

Mali
2 - 1
Burkina Faso

Tapsoba (3' og.), Sinayoko (47')
Sinayoko (81')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Traore (57' pen.)
Tapsoba (27'), Badolo (72'), Tapsoba (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mali and Burkina Faso, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Namibia 0-0 Mali
Wednesday, January 24 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations
All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last Game: Angola 2-0 Burkina Faso
Tuesday, January 23 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

We said: Mali 1-0 Burkina Faso

We anticipate a closely-fought contest between these two teams, but Mali are likely to prevail in the end. The Eagles have demonstrated their defensive solidity, which is often a decisive factor in tournament football. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 15.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.02%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Burkina Faso win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
MaliDrawBurkina Faso
61.1% (-0.052000000000007 -0.05) 23.66% (0.143 0.14) 15.25% (-0.086 -0.09)
Both teams to score 41.27% (-0.543 -0.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.94% (-0.63 -0.63)57.06% (0.634 0.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.06% (-0.506 -0.51)77.95% (0.512 0.51)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.57% (-0.252 -0.25)18.43% (0.256 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.41% (-0.43000000000001 -0.43)49.59% (0.434 0.43)
Burkina Faso Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.6% (-0.504 -0.5)49.41% (0.511 0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.76% (-0.359 -0.36)84.24% (0.363 0.36)
Score Analysis
    Mali 61.09%
    Burkina Faso 15.25%
    Draw 23.65%
MaliDrawBurkina Faso
1-0 @ 15.39% (0.24 0.24)
2-0 @ 13.02% (0.11 0.11)
2-1 @ 9.18% (-0.061999999999999 -0.06)
3-0 @ 7.34% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 5.18% (-0.077 -0.08)
4-0 @ 3.1% (-0.027 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.19% (-0.051 -0.05)
3-2 @ 1.83% (-0.055 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.05% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 61.09%
1-1 @ 10.85% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 9.1% (0.219 0.22)
2-2 @ 3.24% (-0.07 -0.07)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 23.65%
0-1 @ 6.42% (0.061999999999999 0.06)
1-2 @ 3.83% (-0.05 -0.05)
0-2 @ 2.26% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 15.25%

How you voted: 1st Group E vs 2nd Group D

1st Group E
71.9%
Draw
18.8%
2nd Group D
9.4%
64
Head to Head
Jan 16, 2021 7pm
Group Stage
Mali
1-0
Burkina Faso
Bagayoko (70')
M (55')
rhs 2.0
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