MX23RW : Friday, September 27 20:19:30| >> :600:213039:213039:
Mali national football team
Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage
Jan 16, 2024 at 8pm UK
 
South Africa national football team

Mali
2 - 0
South Africa

Traore (60'), Sinayoko (66')
Niakate (18'), Kouyate (43'), Coulibaly (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mvala (58'), Xulu (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mali and South Africa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Mali 6-2 Guinea-Bissau
Saturday, January 6 at 7pm in International Friendlies
All competitions
Last Game: South Africa 0-0 Lesotho
Wednesday, January 10 at 1pm in International Friendlies

We said: Mali 2-1 South Africa

Despite their injury crisis, Mali have a very solid and experienced squad and will be backing themselves to continue their fine run of results. Les Aigles' have an impressive opening-day record at the Africa Cup of Nations and we fancy them to claim a narrow victory in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 70.95%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for South Africa had a probability of 9.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.96%) and 3-0 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a South Africa win it was 0-1 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 15% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Mali in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Mali.

Result
MaliDrawSouth Africa
70.95% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05) 19.23% (0.038999999999998 0.04) 9.81% (0.013 0.01)
Both teams to score 38.51% (-0.071000000000005 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.06% (-0.123 -0.12)51.94% (0.123 0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.31% (-0.109 -0.11)73.68% (0.108 0.11)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.57% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)13.43% (0.054 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.61% (-0.109 -0.11)40.39% (0.108 0.11)
South Africa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.48% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)55.52% (0.053999999999995 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.81% (-0.032 -0.03)88.19% (0.032000000000011 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Mali 70.93%
    South Africa 9.81%
    Draw 19.23%
MaliDrawSouth Africa
2-0 @ 15.02% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-0 @ 14.96% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
3-0 @ 10.05% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.84% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.92% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 5.05% (-0.015 -0.01)
4-1 @ 2.97% (-0.013 -0.01)
5-0 @ 2.03% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.74% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.19% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 70.93%
1-1 @ 8.81% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.46% (0.037 0.04)
2-2 @ 2.6% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 19.23%
0-1 @ 4.39% (0.015 0.01)
1-2 @ 2.59%
0-2 @ 1.29% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.54%
Total : 9.81%

How you voted: Mali vs South Africa

Mali
62.3%
Draw
13.1%
South Africa
24.6%
61
Head to Head
Oct 13, 2019 2pm
International Friendlies
South Africa
2-1
Mali
Furman (23' pen.), Zwane (45')
Koita (74')
Jan 15, 2014 3pm
Group Stage
South Africa
1-1
Mali
Parker (25')
Tshabalala (39')
Sidibe (54')
Traore (23')
Feb 2, 2013 6.30pm
rhs 2.0
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