Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 8, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade 26 Mars

Mali
4 - 0
South Sudan

Kone (10'), Doumbia (29', 57'), Dorgeles (82')
Samassekou (71')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Toha (74'), Mawa Christopher Lokosang (90')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Mali and South Sudan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Congo 0-2 Mali
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

South Sudan

Last Game: Egypt 3-0 South Sudan
Sunday, June 18 at 6pm in International Friendlies

South Sudan have struggled massively for goals of late, and we can see them firing another blank in this one. We also fancy Mali to cruise to a routine victory without having to break too much sweat. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 74.25%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 8.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.43%) and 3-0 (10.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a South Sudan win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	South Sudan
74.25% ( -0.51)	17.16% ( 0.28)	8.59% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 39.91% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.94% (

-0.47)

47.06% (

0.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.7% (

-0.44)

69.3% (

0.43)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.92% (

-0.26)

11.09% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.53% (

-0.58)

35.47% (

0.58)

South Sudan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.89% (

0.23)

55.11% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.05% (

0.14)

87.95% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Mali 74.23%

South Sudan 8.59%

Draw 17.16%

Mali	Draw	South Sudan
2-0 @ 14.77% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 13.43% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 5.96% ( -0.14) 4-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.31% Total : 74.23%	1-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.42% Total : 17.16%	0-1 @ 3.64% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.48% Total : 8.59%