Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 7, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stade de Marrakech

Niger
0 - 2
Uganda

Oumarou (68'), Alhassane (71')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Kayondo (17'), Benson Ochaya (39')
Miya (43'), Benson Ochaya (58'), Aucho (72')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Niger and Uganda, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Niger

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Tanzania 1-0 Niger
Sunday, June 18 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ghana	3	4	7
2	Mali	3	0	4
3	Congo DR	3	0	3
4	Niger	3	-4	1

Uganda

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Uganda 1-2 Algeria
Sunday, June 18 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Egypt	3	5	9
2	Uganda	3	0	4
3	Congo DR	3	0	3
4	Zimbabwe	3	-5	1

Uganda head into Thursday's game needing all three points against Niger and favourable results in the other group fixture to stand a chance of securing a first AFCON appearance since 2019. With the Mena playing only for pride, we fancy Uganda snatching a narrow win in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 53.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Niger had a probability of 18.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.02%) and 1-2 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.48%), while for a Niger win it was 1-0 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uganda would win this match.

Result
Niger	Draw	Uganda
18.66% ( -0)	27.71% ( 0.01)	53.63% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 37.5% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.51% (

-0.02)

65.49% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.77% (

-0.02)

84.23% (

0.01)

Niger Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.99% (

-0.01)

50.01% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.33% (

-0.01)

84.67% (

0.01)

Uganda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.03% (

-0.01)

24.97% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.39% (

-0.02)

59.62% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Niger 18.66%

Uganda 53.63%

Draw 27.69%

Niger	Draw	Uganda
1-0 @ 8.65% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.16% ( -0) 2-0 @ 3% 3-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.89% Total : 18.66%	0-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.01) 1-1 @ 12% 2-2 @ 2.89% ( -0) Other @ 0.33% Total : 27.69%	0-1 @ 17.32% 0-2 @ 12.02% 1-2 @ 8.33% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.56% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.85% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.93% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 53.63%