The Major League Soccer campaign resumes on Saturday as Toronto have a chance to win consecutive matches for the first time this year when they host New York City FC at BMO Field.
Toronto overcame an early deficit to defeat DC United 2-1 in their previous encounter, while the Pigeons were shut out for the third time this season in a 2-0 loss to the Philadelphia Union.
Match preview
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It was quite the celebration in Toronto last weekend, with Canada officially punching their ticket to the upcoming World Cup, and TFC will be looking for a similar environment to help them get back on the straight and narrow path.
In his early days as manager, Bob Bradley has often stressed the importance of having a strong mentality, and we saw that from this group in a difficult match against DC United, where they found themselves behind at home in the opening 10 minutes.
There was a lot for Bradley to like about how his team responded to that early setback, as they were strong in the air, fought hard for every loose ball and deservedly came away with the victory.
Given the onslaught that the Black-and-Red unleashed on TFC last season, beating them 7-1, it was a big psychological boost for the 2017 MLS Cup winners to exercise some of those demons from the past.
Responding from some early adversity was an issue for this team in 2021, but we have seen them grow significantly in that department of late, earning four points this year when conceding first.
One major change that we have seen from this side in the early-going of 2022 is that there appears to be more urgency from the players to gain and maintain possession than we saw a year ago, with the Reds currently ranked sixth in the league in that category, which is up 6% from 2021.
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If there was one team in need of a breather given their demanding schedule, it was New York City FC, who prior to the international window did not have longer than four days rest in between their matches played in March.
In April, it does not get any easier for Ronny Deila and his side with the resumption of the MLS season, plus the semi-finals of the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL).
When you consider how many matches they have played over the past two months, it is no surprise that fatigue seemed to play a factor in their previous fixture against Philly, as they fell asleep in critical situations, according to Deila.
With the attacking depth that this team possess all over the field, it is a surprise to see them struggling to create scoring chances early on, with the second-fewest goals (four) in the Eastern Conference, behind only Inter Miami.
Away goals may have kept their CCL hopes alive, however, they have yet to find the back of the net on the road this season, firing only five shots on target after two encounters.
They enter this fixture unbeaten in their previous four meetings against the Reds, with the understanding that a win would put them right back into the playoff conversation.
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Team News
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March was quite a month for TFC midfielder Jonathan Osorio, as the home-grown Toronto native notched the match-winner versus DC and got a rousing ovation from the crowd at BMO Field last Sunday when Canada qualified for their first World Cup in 36 years.
Alejandro Pozuelo picked up his first strike of the year in their last encounter, and he will look to do more damage to the Cityzens, scoring five goals against them in his Toronto career, while the club also dealt Kemar Lawrence to Minnesota United during the international break, getting the rights to Sean O'Hearn, plus $50,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) in return.
Ayo Akinola is still out with an ACL issue, Jacob Shaffelburg has not recovered from a problem in his lower left leg and Chris Mavinga remains questionable with a lower leg injury.
Anton Tinnerholm will not be available for this one as the New York defender has a torn Achilles tendon, while it is unclear if Tayvon Gray will be ready to return from his lower-body injury.
Valentin Castellanos has yet to find the back of the net in this MLS campaign, while Talles Magno has a goal and an assist, with the other goals for The Pigeons coming courtesy of Alexander Callens, Santiago Rodriguez and Thiago Martins.
Deila brought two new faces into the starting 11 against Philadelphia, as Keaton Parks and Rodriguez replaced Nicolas Acevedo and Talles Magno.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; MacNaughton, Salcedo, O'Neill, Marshall-Rutty; Chung, Bradley, Priso, Petrasso; Pozuelo; Jimenez
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Barraza; Gloster, Martins, Callens, Amundsen; Parks, Morales; Rodriguez, Moralez, Magno; Castellanos
We say: Toronto 1-2 New York City FC
There is definite growth happening with the youngsters in Toronto, but taking on a side as seasoned as New York, who should be well rested, might be too much for them to handle.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 49.76%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.33%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (6.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
