Round one of the Eastern Conference playoffs for the MLS Cup begins on Saturday, when New York Red Bulls travel to Subaru Park where they will face Philadelphia Union.
The hosts finished the regular season in second spot, six points better off than this weekend's visitors, who secured their seventh-place finish by one point.
Match preview
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Jim Curtin's side finished the regular season by recording a 1-1 draw against New York City FC, as Valentin Castellanos cancelled out Kacper Przybylko's opener for Philadelphia.
That draw meant that Union completed the Eastern Conference campaign unbeaten in four outings, helping them finish above Nashville and guarantee themselves a home tie for round one in the playoffs.
Philadelphia have been much stronger in Pennsylvania than they have been on their travels this season, winning eight more games at home and only tasting defeat three times on their own patch.
In contrast, New York Red Bulls only won five of their 17 away games and conceded double the amount of goals on their travels than they did so at home, suggesting that the hosts have an advantage on Saturday.
Union were knocked out of the playoffs at the first attempt last year, being beaten by New England Revolution in the first round, so they will be looking to better that performance this time around.
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The Red Bulls also finished the regular season with a 1-1 draw, coming against fellow playoff rivals Nashville earlier this month, when Fabio's early strike for New York was cancelled out by Hany Mukhtar's 16th goal of the campaign.
After an irregular start to the league, Gerhard Struber's side found their stride and are currently on a run of just one defeat in their last 12 outings.
Like their hosts on Saturday, New York Red Bulls too were knocked out of the playoffs in round one last season, closely missing out to Columbus Crew.
The year prior to that defeat, Philadelphia met New York Red Bulls in this round of the competition, and Union came out on top in 2019 winning a tight affair 4-3 after extra time.
Another close encounter is expected this weekend, as the last two meetings between these sides ended in 1-1 draws, with the first game between Union and Red Bulls this season ending in a narrow victory for Curtin's team.
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Team News
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Left-back Kai Wagner is suspended for this match after picking up his eighth yellow card of the season in the final game against New York City two weeks ago.
Ilsinho and Sergio Santos will remain sidelined for Philadelphia with the attacking duo both suffering from muscle injuries, but they could feature later in the playoffs if their teammates can progress.
The hosts midfield three is likely to be made up from Leon Flach, Jose Andres Martinez and Alejandro Bedoya, while Przybylko will lead the line.
New York Red Bulls also have suspension issues, as midfielder Sean Davis will be forced to sit out on Saturday and he is likely to be a big miss having started started all 34 of Red Bulls' games this season.
Aaron Long continued to be absent through injury, but for certain Struber will set his team up in a 3-4-3 formation with Andrew Gutman, Sean Nealis and Andres Reyes making up the back line.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Powell, Elliott, Glesnes, Mbaizo; Flach, Martinez, Bedoya; Monteiro, Przybylko, Aaronson
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Gutman, Nealis, Reyes; Tolkin, Amaya, Yearwood, Edwards; Clark, Fabio, Casseres
We say: Philadelphia Union 2-1 New York Red Bulls
With this encounter being a one-legged tie it is expected to be a cagey affair and the scoreline is likely to remain close throughout the match.
The past meetings between these two teams this campaign also suggests that one team will not run away with the victory, but the hosts should be confident from their second-placed finish in the regular season.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 48%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 25.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.25%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (8.6%).
