Seeking to book their spot in the knockout stages of the 2024 Leagues Cup, Austin FC go head to head with Mexican outfit Monterrey at the Q2 Stadium on Tuesday.
Los Albiazules, who have enjoyed a solid start to the new Liga MX campaign, will head into the game looking to make it three wins on the bounce and kick off their cup quest on a high.
Match preview
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Monterrey continued their fine early-season form in the Liga MX as they picked up a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Queretaro when the two sides squared off at the Estadio BBVA last Sunday.
German Berterame grabbed his first goal of the season shortly before the half-hour mark to hand the hosts a first-half lead, and after Johan Rojas doubled the advantage with a 66th-minute effort, Victor Lopez struck in the 88th minute to half the deficit for Queretaro.
Monterrey come into the new campaign off the back of a solid run in the 2023 Apertura as they finished fourth in the table before reaching the playoffs semi-finals, where they suffered a penalty-shootout against Cruz Azul after a 2-2 aggregate stalemate with La Maquina.
Having picked up three wins from their four Liga MX matches, Fernando Ortiz's men now turn their attention to the Leagues Cup, where they will be looking to improve on their fourth-placed finish from last season.
Monterrey brushed aside three MLS sides in their opening three games, beating Real Salt Lake and Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers, en route to the round of 16 where they snatched a 1-0 victory over Tigres courtesy of a 97th-minute penalty from Sergio Canales before they fought back from two goals down to secure a 3-2 win over Los Angeles FC in the quarter-finals on August 12.
However, Los Albiazules' hopes of reaching the inaugural Leagues Cup final were dashed by Nashville as they fell to a 2-0 against to the Boys in Gold on August 16, three days before suffering a 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Philadelphia Union in the third-placed playoff.
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In stark contrast, Austin endured a forgettable 2023 League Cup campaign as they were dumped out in the group stages after losing their two games in Group H.
Both defeats came at the hands of Mexican clubs as Los Verdes were beaten 3-1 by Mazatlan in the opening game on July 22, eight days before suffering a 3-1 loss against Juarez.
However, a 3-2 victory over Pumas UNAM on Friday night has seen Austin kick off this year's campaign on a positive note as they look to reach the knockout stages.
Goalkeeper Stefan Cleveland grabbed the headlines at the Q2 Stadium as he made a brilliant penalty save in the 94th minute to keep the hosts' one-goal lead intact and hand them all three points.
Back home, Austin are on a three-game winless run, claiming one point from a possible nine in MLS, and have managed just two wins in their last 11 games since late May.
This poor run of results has seen Josh Wolff's men drop out of the playoffs qualifying places in the Western Conference as they currently occupy 10th place in the standings, having picked up 31 points from 25 matches.
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Team News
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Berterame, who netted four goals in 10 league appearances last term, opened his account for the season against Queretaro and we expect the 25-year-old to lead Monterrey's attack once again.
He should form the attacking quartet with Jordi Cortizo, Canales and Argentine forward Maximiliano Meza, while we expect an unchanged centre-back pairing of Victor Guzman and veteran defender Hector Moreno for the second consecutive game.
New signing Oliver Torres is yet to feature for Los Albiazules as he continues his recovery from a shoulder injury and the former Sevilla man is out of contention.
Austin will have to cope without the services of Ghanaian midfielder Osman Bukari, who is suspended after picking up a red card in the first half against Pumas on Saturday.
In his absence, Owen Wolff should come into the fold, teaming up with Jon Gallagher, Daniel Pereira and 33-year-old Alexander Ring at the centre of the park.
We expect an unchanged back four from Saturday, with Guilherme Biro, Matt Hedges, Brendan Hines-Ike and Mikkel Desler retaining their roles in the starting side.
Monterrey possible starting lineup:
Andrada; Medina, Guzman, Moreno, Arteaga; Rodriguez, Ochoa; Meza, Canales, Cortizo; Berterame
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Biro, Hedges, Hines-Ike, Desler; Gallagher, Pereira, Ring, Wolff; Driussi, Zardes
We say: Monterrey 2-1 Austin FC
Having picked up an opening-day victory, Austin are on the cusp of progressing to the knockout stages and will need at least a draw to confirm their place. However, Monterrey have put together a solid run of results to start the new campaign and we see them coming away with a narrow victory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 60.23%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 17.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (5.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
Joshua Ojele
