Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 57.36%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 21.57% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.22%) and 1-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-2 (5.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.