Inter Milan could move one step closer to the last 16 of the Champions League if they can beat already-eliminated Shakhtar Donetsk in their penultimate Group D encounter on Wednesday night.
Each of the last three meetings between these two sides has ended goalless, including September's stalemate in Ukraine.
Match preview
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After claiming a point in the Milan derby before the international break, Inter Milan became the first team to defeat high-flying Napoli in Serie A this season, when they secured an entertaining 3-2 victory on home soil last weekend.
Strikes from Hakan Calhanoglu, Ivan Perisic and Lautaro Martinez, either side of goals from Napoli pair Piotr Zielinski and Dries Mertens, ensured all three points were claimed by the Nerazzurri for the eighth time this term.
Not only did that victory help the Scudetto holders lay down their title credentials, but it also moved them to within four points of the Gli Azzurri at the summit.
Simone Inzaghi's men are also in with a good chance of progressing to the Champions League knockout stages, as they sit second in Group D and two points behind leaders Real Madrid, who they will face in their final group match next month.
After a slow start to their European campaign, claiming just one point from a possible six available, Inter have since secured maximum points in home and away fixtures against tournament debutants Sheriff Tiraspol, which as a result has seen the Italian giants leapfrog their Moldovan counterparts into the qualification places.
Inter now prepare for Wednesday's encounter, hoping they can finally find a way to breach Shakhtar's backline, after failing to do so from 43 shots on goal in each of their last three meetings against them.
Victory for Inzaghi's side at San Siro would book their place in the last 16 for the first time since 2011-12, if Sheriff also fail to beat Real Madrid.
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Shakhtar Donetsk extended their unbeaten domestic run to 12 matches when they secured a 2-0 victory at home against Rukh Vynnyky last weekend.
The 13-time Ukrainian champions were set to settle for just a point; however, two late strikes in the final five minutes from Marcos Antonio and Tete helped the Hirnyky get over the line and keep within touching distance of rivals Dynamo Kiev, who are clinging onto top spot based on goals scored.
For the last three seasons, Shakhtar have been demoted from the Champions League group stage into the Europa League, after finishing third on each occasion. However, this campaign, the Ukrainians are at risk of missing out altogether, as they currently sit five points behind Sheriff in third spot.
In their most recent Group D encounter, striker Fernando managed to score their first goal in this year's competition against Real Madrid; however, a brace from Karim Benzema helped the Spanish giants claim a 2-1 win at the Santiago Bernabeu and condemned Roberto De Zerbi's men to their third defeat in four group matches.
Securing maximum points from their final two fixtures is now required for Shakhtar if they are to avoid finishing bottom of the group for the first time since 2007-08, though success on Wednesday could prove to be a tall order.
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Team News
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Inter Milan centre-back Stefan De Vrij and forward Alexis Sanchez both remain on the sidelines with hamstring injuries, while Joaquin Correa is doubtful after being forced off in the win against Napoli with an unspecified injury.
Martinez and Eden Dzeko are expected to lead the line in attack, if Correa is not deemed fit to feature, with Turkish playmaker Calhanoglu to operate in the number 10 role just behind.
Andrea Ranocchia will likely retain his place in defence, as De Vrij watches on from the sidelines, joining Milan Skriniar and Alessandro Bastoni in the back three.
Wing-backs Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco will both be pushing for starts ahead of Matteo Darmian and Perisic, while ever-present due Nicolo Barella and Marcelo Brozovic are set to start once again in centre-midfield.
As for Shakhtar, Lassina Traore and Junior Moraes continue to recover from long-term knee injuries, while Yevhen Konoplyanka is suffering with a back problem.
Attacking midfielder Pedrinho made his first appearance in over a month when he came off the bench last weekend, and the Brazilian will now be looking to force his way into the first XI ahead of Alan Patrick.
Twenty-year-old goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin is set to keep his place between the sticks ahead of 37-year-old Andriy Pyatov, while Manor Solomon – who began on the bench against Real Madrid last time out – could be handed a start on the left flank ahead of Mykhaylo Mudryk.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, Ranocchia, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Dimarco; Calhanoglu; Dzeko, Martinez
Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Dodo, Kyvtsov, Marlon, Ismaily; Maycon, Stepanenko; Tete, Pedrinho, Solomon; Fernando
We say: Inter Milan 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk
Encounters between Inter and Shakhtar have recently seen little goalmouth action; however, with both sides needing to claim a victory in their penultimate Group D match, we may see a less cagey affair on Wednesday.
The two sides have impressed domestically so far this season, though Inter have looked stronger in the Champions League and they should have enough quality in their side to secure a narrow victory at San Siro.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 62.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 14.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.73%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 0-1 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Inter Milan in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Inter Milan.
