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FA Cup
FA Cup | First Round Replays
Nov 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Amlin Stadium
Charlton Athletic

Cray Valley
1 - 6
Charlton

Lisbie (44' pen.)
Williams (76')
FT(HT: 1-1)
May (35', 51'), Leaburn (49'), Dobson (58'), Campbell (77'), Mbick (85')
Walker (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's FA Cup clash between Cray Valley Paper Mills and Charlton Athletic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cray Valley Paper Mills

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Charlton 1-1 Cray Valley
Sunday, November 5 at 5.30pm in FA Cup
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Charlton Athletic

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Portsmouth 2-2 Charlton
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One

We said: Cray Valley Paper Mills 0-3 Charlton Athletic

 Not a single ounce of pressure should be weighing on the shoulders of Cray Valley, who have already gone toe-to-toe with Charlton on rival territory and should see no reason why lightning cannot strike twice in Eltham. The Addicks would not require a replay had they shown more of a clinical edge on November 5, though, and while the FA Cup always springs a shock or two, we can only picture Appleton's men giving their eighth-tier hosts a rude awakening and booking their spot in the second round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 86.53%. A draw had a probability of 8.7% and a win for Cray Valley Paper Mills had a probability of 4.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 0-3 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (8.46%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.74%), while for a Cray Valley Paper Mills win it was 2-1 (1.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Charlton Athletic would win this match.

Result
Cray Valley Paper MillsDrawCharlton Athletic
4.75% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05) 8.72% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03) 86.53% (0.083000000000013 0.08)
Both teams to score 53.72% (-0.22199999999999 -0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
80.65% (-0.058999999999997 -0.06)19.35% (0.062000000000001 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
62.83% (-0.087000000000003 -0.09)37.16% (0.088999999999999 0.09)
Cray Valley Paper Mills Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.35% (-0.229 -0.23)44.65% (0.23200000000001 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.35% (-0.185 -0.18)80.65% (0.188 0.19)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.05% (0.0040000000000049 0)2.95%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
86.66% (0.0049999999999955 0)13.33% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Score Analysis
    Cray Valley Paper Mills 4.75%
    Charlton Athletic 86.53%
    Draw 8.72%
Cray Valley Paper MillsDrawCharlton Athletic
2-1 @ 1.51% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-0 @ 1.06% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.19%
Total : 4.75%
1-1 @ 3.74% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.66% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 1.32% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.01%
Total : 8.72%
0-3 @ 9.6% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-4 @ 8.46% (0.045 0.04)
0-2 @ 8.17% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
1-3 @ 7.74% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
1-4 @ 6.82% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.59% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-5 @ 5.96% (0.032 0.03)
1-5 @ 4.81% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 4.64% (0.023 0.02)
0-6 @ 3.5% (0.019 0.02)
2-3 @ 3.12% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-6 @ 2.82% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-4 @ 2.75% (-0.021 -0.02)
2-5 @ 1.94% (-0.015 -0.02)
0-7 @ 1.76% (0.01 0.01)
1-7 @ 1.42% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-6 @ 1.14% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 5.28%
Total : 86.53%

How you voted: Cray Valley vs Charlton

Cray Valley Paper Mills
14.0%
Draw
16.3%
Charlton Athletic
69.8%
43
Head to Head
Nov 5, 2023 5.30pm
First Round
Charlton
1-1
Cray Valley
Fraser (9')
Ness (48' og.)
> Preview
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