Goodison Park hosts what has been colloquially dubbed the 'points deduction derby' on Sunday, as Premier League relegation scrappers Everton and Nottingham Forest do battle on Merseyside.
The Toffees are reeling from a 6-0 slaughter at the hands of Chelsea on Monday night, while their visitors fought back to clinch a 2-2 draw versus Wolverhampton Wanderers last time out.
Match preview
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Everton centre-back James Tarkowski did not bite his tongue when assessing Everton's six-goal embarrassment at the hands of mid-table Chelsea on Monday evening, where the travelling Toffees faithful witnessed Cole Palmer single-handedly tear their team to shreds.
Alongside a Nicolas Jackson strike and Alfie Gilchrist's emotional first goal for the Blues, Palmer struck a fantastic four goals - despite a farcical penalty squabble - to further damage the spirits of Sean Dyche's men, who were deducted a further two points for financial indiscretions before heading south.
Before their on-field and off-field problems reared their ugly heads again, though, Everton had made a praiseworthy start to April - holding Newcastle United and getting the better of demotion rivals Burnley - so their Premier League status remains in their own hands in 16th spot.
Dyche's men may only be one point and one place better off than Forest, while also possessing just a two-point buffer over Luton Town in 18th, but they boast a game in hand on both teams and rather remarkably remain above the dotted line despite only winning one of their last 15 Premier League contests.
Several Goodison Park metrics are working against Dyche's crop, though, as from the 17 teams to have also competed in the Premier League last season, Everton rank bottom for home wins (10), points won (37) and goals scored (32), while also suffering a division-high 17 losses.
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On the contrary, Nottingham Forest are at the same end of the 17-team spectrum for away performances, with just three road wins, 18 road points and 28 away goals to boasts since the start of last season, further increasing the stakes for Sunday's crunch clash.
Nuno Espirito Santo's reunion with former club Wolves last weekend was nearly a joyous affair for the Portuguese, who witnessed Morgan Gibbs-White - another erstwhile Molineux man - and Danilo cancel out Matheus Cunha's opener, but the Brazilian managed to bundle home his second of the afternoon just past the hour mark.
While Santo professed that the Tricky Trees did enough for the win at the City Ground, his side were forced to be content with the point that leaves them teetering just above the danger done in 17th position, but they also have goal difference on their side against Luton.
The Garibaldi faithful have cause for springtime optimism, though, as Santo's men have lost just one of their last five matches after suffering four defeats on the bounce from February 24 to April 10, but they are yet to win a Premier League away game in 2024 and are without a clean sheet on the road since October.
Both clashes between Sunday's battlers in the 2022-23 season ended level - including a 1-1 stalemate at Goodison Park - but Everton ran out 1-0 victors at the City Ground back in December, where Dwight McNeil's second-half strike did the damage.
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As well as being left battered and bruised psychologically speaking at Stamford Bridge, Everton also welcomed three new faces into their infirmary in Seamus Coleman, Jarrad Branthwaite and Nathan Patterson, the latter of whom is nursing a severe hamstring injury which could seriously jeopardise his chances of playing for Scotland at Euro 2024.
Dyche is keeping his fingers crossed that the highly-rated Branthwaite has only picked up a minor problem, but it is still unclear whether he will be available this weekend, while Coleman's groin strain is likely to sideline him too; Ashley Young or Ben Godfrey should be asked to fill in at right-back.
Dele Alli (groin) and Lewis Dobbin (ankle) are still out too, but Dominic Calvert-Lewin (hamstring) and Idrissa Gueye (calf) were both involved in light training on Friday alongside Branthwaite and could reinforce the hosts' ranks.
While Everton might have their attacking talisman fit and firing for Sunday, the trip to Goodison will come too soon for Forest number nine Taiwo Awoniyi, although a comeback before the month is over is not beyond the realm of possibility.
Willy Boly's muscular injury continues to render him unavailable, while Anthony Elanga sat out the Wolves draw with an issue sustained in the recent loss to Tottenham Hotspur and is a doubt; in his place, Giovanni Reyna registered an assist on his maiden Premier League start.
The USA international should therefore have done enough to retain his position if Elanga fails a late fitness test, and Santo should otherwise see no reason to alter his XI.
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Young, Tarkowski, Keane, Mykolenko; Harrison, Onana, Gomes, McNeil; Doucoure; Calvert-Lewin
Nottingham Forest possible starting lineup:
Sels; Williams, Omobamidele, Murillo, Aina; Danilo, Yates; Reyna, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood
We say: Everton 0-1 Nottingham Forest
Statistics suggest that Nottingham Forest need only find the back of the net once to come away with a positive result, as Everton have lost 17 and drawn five of their last 22 Premier League home games when conceding, and each of their most recent 10 Goodison Park successes in the top flight has been to nil.
Given the superior quality that Forest possess in the final third, and Everton's fresh batch of defensive injury concerns, that scenario is not beyond the realm of possibility, and Santo's men may require just the one goal to leapfrog their fellow basement battlers.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
