We said: Hoffenheim 1-2 Lyon
While both sides have had periods of inconsistency this season, Hoffenheim have faced much more difficulty than Lyon in both the Europa League and their respective domestic league, leading us to believe the hosts are the stronger side and will win here.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.18%) and 0-1 (4.83%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.