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UEFA Conference League
Conference League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 11, 2024 at 6.30pm UK
The Oval

Caernarfon
2 - 0
Crusaders

Owen (4'), Clarke (37')
Clarke (63'), Thomas (77'), Owen (84')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Offord (15'), Stewart (31'), Clarke (45+1'), Lowry (67'), O'Rourke (77')
Coverage of the Conference League First Qualifying Round clash between Caernarfon Town and Crusaders.

Form, Standings, Stats

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Caernarfon 3-1 Pen-y-Bont
Saturday, May 18 at 2.45pm in Welsh Premier League

Crusaders

All competitions
Last Game: Crusaders 3-2 Coleraine
Monday, May 6 at 3pm in NIFL Premiership

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 54.14%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.41%) and 0-1 (7.34%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
Caernarfon TownDrawCrusaders
24.35% (0.053999999999998 0.05) 21.51% (0.021999999999998 0.02) 54.14% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)
Both teams to score 62.97% (-0.012 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.33% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)35.67% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.26% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)57.73% (0.052999999999997 0.05)
Caernarfon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.63% (0.02000000000001 0.02)27.37% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.17% (0.024000000000001 0.02)62.83% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02)
Crusaders Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.7% (-0.037999999999997 -0.04)13.29% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.88% (-0.078000000000003 -0.08)40.12% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Caernarfon Town 24.35%
    Crusaders 54.14%
    Draw 21.51%
Caernarfon TownDrawCrusaders
2-1 @ 6.16% (0.012 0.01)
1-0 @ 4.72% (0.014 0.01)
2-0 @ 3.06% (0.011 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.69% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 2.66% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.32% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 3.75%
Total : 24.35%
1-1 @ 9.51% (0.013 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.22% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 3.64% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.81% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 21.51%
1-2 @ 9.6% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 7.41% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 7.34% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
1-3 @ 6.46% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.98% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 4.18% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-4 @ 3.26% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.51% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-4 @ 2.11% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.31% (-0.006 -0.01)
0-5 @ 1.01% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-4 @ 0.91% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 54.14%

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