Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 35.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
