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Bundesliga | Gameweek 5
Sep 24, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Heidenheim

B. Leverkusen
4 - 1
Heidenheim

Okoh Boniface (9', 74' pen.), Hofmann (63'), Adli (82')
Palacios (31')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Dinkci (58')
Theuerkauf (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Heidenheim, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-0 Hacken
Thursday, September 21 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Heidenheim

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 4-2 Werder Bremen
Sunday, September 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Heidenheim

 Leverkusen have already beaten RB Leipzig and Borussia Monchengladbach, as well as holding Bayern to a draw at the Allianz, so another three points will be the order of the day here against newly-promoted opposition. Heidenheim have scored eight in their last three games though, including two away at Dortmund, so Leverkusen can not take them lightly. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawHeidenheim
50.35% (1.563 1.56) 23% (0.0030000000000001 0) 26.64% (-1.564 -1.56)
Both teams to score 60.01% (-1.376 -1.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.37% (-1.228 -1.23)40.63% (1.23 1.23)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.99% (-1.269 -1.27)63.01% (1.271 1.27)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.7% (0.11 0.11)16.3% (-0.109 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.13% (0.19900000000001 0.2)45.86% (-0.198 -0.2)
Heidenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.7% (-1.741 -1.74)28.3% (1.743 1.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.98% (-2.253 -2.25)64.02% (2.254 2.25)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 50.35%
    Heidenheim 26.64%
    Draw 23%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawHeidenheim
2-1 @ 9.58% (0.144 0.14)
1-0 @ 8.37% (0.492 0.49)
2-0 @ 7.59% (0.472 0.47)
3-1 @ 5.79% (0.108 0.11)
3-0 @ 4.59% (0.301 0.3)
3-2 @ 3.66% (-0.112 -0.11)
4-1 @ 2.63% (0.058 0.06)
4-0 @ 2.08% (0.144 0.14)
4-2 @ 1.66% (-0.045 -0.05)
5-1 @ 0.95% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 50.35%
1-1 @ 10.56% (0.12 0.12)
2-2 @ 6.05% (-0.209 -0.21)
0-0 @ 4.61% (0.255 0.26)
3-3 @ 1.54% (-0.127 -0.13)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23%
1-2 @ 6.67% (-0.256 -0.26)
0-1 @ 5.82% (0.045 0.04)
0-2 @ 3.68% (-0.155 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.81% (-0.255 -0.26)
2-3 @ 2.55% (-0.22 -0.22)
0-3 @ 1.55% (-0.147 -0.15)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 26.64%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Heidenheim

Bayer Leverkusen
88.2%
Draw
7.8%
Heidenheim
3.9%
51
Head to Head
Feb 5, 2019 5.30pm
Round of 16
Heidenheim
2-1
B. Leverkusen
Dovedan (47'), Multhaup (72')
Dorsch (64')
Brandt (44')
Dragovic (77'), Baumgartlinger (88')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern18143156154145
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen18125144242041
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt18113442241836
4Stuttgart1895436261032
5RB Leipzig189453227531
6Mainz 05Mainz188463123828
7Wolfsburg188374032827
8Freiburg188372534-927
9Werder Bremen187563134-326
10Borussia DortmundDortmund187473231125
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach187382729-224
12Augsburg186482133-1222
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin185581624-820
14St Pauli1852111421-717
15Hoffenheim184592335-1217
16Heidenheim1842122338-1514
17Holstein Kiel1832132646-2011
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1824121740-2310
> Bundesliga Full Table


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