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Brazil national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 15, 2021 at 1.30am UK
 
Uruguay national football team

Brazil
4 - 1
Uruguay

Neymar (10'), Raphinha (18', 58'), Barbosa (83')
Fabinho (43')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Suarez (77')
Valverde (47'), Cavani (70'), Coates (90+3')

Preview: Brazil vs. Uruguay - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Brazil and Uruguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Brazil will aim to return to winning ways in World Cup 2022 Qualifying when they welcome Uruguay to Manaus on Thursday.

Tite's side dropped their first points of qualification against Colombia on Sunday night, while their visitors suffered a comprehensive 3-0 defeat to Argentina.


Match preview

Brazil coach Tite pictured on June 13, 2021© Reuters

Brazil's perfect start to World Cup Qualifying was destined to end at some point, with the Selecao unable to make it 10 wins from 10 as they were held to a goalless draw by Colombia during the first halt of their Qatar 2022 momentum.

Despite bossing the ball with 63% possession, Brazil only mustered five shots on target during a toothless attacking performance, but fortunately for Tite, that result has done little harm to their qualification bid.

Indeed, Brazil remain at the summit with 28 points taken from a possible 30 - with second-placed Argentina six points adrift of their rivals - while only three goals conceded in their opening 10 games is unsurprisingly the best defensive record in CONMEBOL Qualifying.

Twenty-two strikes notched up at the correct end of the pitch is also a continental best, but Brazil's attacking forces can ill-afford another off day like they had against Colombia lest they risk their position at the top of the rankings coming under threat.

While their stalemate with Colombia was disappointing in the grand scheme of things, their unbeaten run in World Cup Qualifying now stands at a remarkable 27 games since a 2-0 defeat to Chile in October 2015, and they are on a 10-game qualification winning streak on home soil.

Uruguay's Edison Cavani celebrates scoring their first goal with Rodrigo Bentancur on June 29, 2021© Reuters

Uruguay became the latest victims of a record-breaking Lionel Messi strike over the weekend, as the Argentine's 38th-minute opener for his side saw him do what no male South American footballer before him could - reach 80 international goals.

The six-time Ballon d'Or winner's effort came before Rodrigo de Paul and Lautaro Martinez both struck to see out a comfortable 3-0 win for the Copa America winners over Uruguay, who may just start to look over their shoulder given their recent results.

Having claimed just two wins in their last eight World Cup Qualifying battles, Oscar Tabarez's side are just about holding onto that fourth and final automatic qualification spot, but fifth-placed Colombia find themselves just one point behind their continental counterparts.

Furthermore, Tabarez's side travel to Brazil on a three-game winless run away from home in World Cup Qualifying - with that defeat to Argentina coming after draws with Venezuela and Peru - and they have only prevailed in two of their 13 encounters on the road in qualification since 2015.

Not since 2001 have Uruguay managed to beat Brazil in any competition, and the hosts have won seven of their last eight encounters with La Celeste in all competitions, including a comfortable 2-0 win during their first Qualifying clash last November.

Brazil World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Brazil form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Uruguay World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L

Uruguay form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • L



Team News

Brazil's Eder Militao in action with Ecuador's Enner Valencia on June 27, 2021© Reuters

After witnessing his Real Madrid teammate Casemiro withdraw from October's games due to injury, Eder Militao had to come off against Uruguay with back pain and may not be available on Thursday.

Militao's issue is not thought to be anything major, but Thiago Silva is more than capable of deputising alongside Marquinhos for the time being.

Raphinha has surely put himself into contention for a start with his dazzling 30-minute cameo against Colombia, with Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Barbosa both at risk of losing their spots after struggling to make an impact in the final third last time out.

Meanwhile, Uruguay will welcome Rodrigo Bentancur back from suspension for the trip to Brazil, and the Juventus man ought to earn an immediate recall to the midfield in a change of shape for the visitors.

Tabarez opted for a five-at-the-back system in Bentancur's absence against Argentina - which did not pay dividends in the slightest - and Sebastian Coates could therefore make way as Diego Godin and Ronald Araujo retain their spots.

Jose Maria Gimenez has returned to Atletico Madrid after suffering a hip injury against Colombia last week, while Darwin Nunez and Edinson Cavani will likely be restricted to more minutes as substitutes as Luis Suarez continues to lead the line.

Brazil possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Danilo, Silva, Marquinhos, Sandro; Fred, Fabinho; Raphinha, Neymar, Paqueta; Barbosa

Uruguay possible starting lineup:
Muslera; Nandez, Godin, Araujo, Vina; Bentancur, Vecino, Valverde; De la Cruz, Suarez, Rodriguez


SM words green background

We say: Brazil 2-0 Uruguay

No side has managed to beat Brazil away from home in World Cup Qualifying since the turn of the millennium, and not many will be placing bets on Uruguay being the first team to do so here.

La Celeste have struggled for performances on the road in recent times, while the Selecao will be determined to bounce back immediately from Sunday's disappointment, so we can only back Brazil to get the job done comfortably.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 58.96%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Uruguay had a probability of 17.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.94%), while for a Uruguay win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brazil would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Brazil vs Uruguay

Brazil
84.4%
Draw
6.9%
Uruguay
8.8%
160
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Lionel Messi in action for Argentina on September 10, 2021
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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
3 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264219
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1281325
2 Ecuador flag Ecuador1264222
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1255220
4 Colombia Colombia1254319
5 Brazil Brazil1253418
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1245317
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1241713
8 Venezuela Venezuela1226412
9 Chile Chile122379
10 Peru flag Peru121477


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