Benfica travel to Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga on Sunday hoping that they can close the gap at the top of the table between themselves and rivals Sporting Lisbon.
Meanwhile, the Galos are hoping to extend their unbeaten run in all competitions to four matches.
Match preview
© Reuters
Benfica managed to progress in both of their domestic cup competitions this week, although one match proved to be more of a challenge than the other.
After a convincing 5-0 thrashing of second division side Vilafranquense in the Taca de Portugal last Sunday, the Eagles were forced to penalties in order to surpass Vitoria in the Taca da Liga on Wednesday and reach the semi-finals.
Jorge Jesus is still trying to resolve Benfica's defensive frailties which at times are proving costly. The Eagles have conceded 11 goals and kept only three clean sheets in the league so far this campaign, in comparison to the three goals conceded and seven clean sheets they kept at this stage last season.
Summer signings Jan Vertonghen from Tottenham Hotspur and Nicolas Otamendi from Manchester City have failed to replicate the form of last season's centre-back pairing Ruben Dias – who has since moved to the Etihad Stadium – and Ferro, who has found game time difficult to come by this term, having played only 16 minutes in the Primeira Liga.
Jesus may have to consider alterations to his backline if performances do not improve in the near future.
Benfica travel to Gil Vicente with an impressive record against them, winning their last four encounters by an aggregate score of 9-0.
Another victory against the Galos would extend their unbeaten run against them to 12 matches and could see the Eagles move five points clear of rivals Porto if they were to lose to Nacional.
© Reuters
After a run of four successive league defeats which resulted in the sacking of Rui Almeida, Gil Vicente have since appointed Ricardo Soares as their head coach and have picked up four points from their last two matches as well as progressing in the Taca de Portugal.
The Galos beat Oleiros on penalties in Soares's first game in charge at the end of last month, before securing a 2-0 league win against Rio Ave and a 1-1 draw away at Moreirense in their most recent match.
Despite scoring only eight goals this campaign – only five teams have scored fewer – Gil Vicente have found the net in seven of their nine Primeira Liga fixtures, including all four of their home matches.
Seven of Gil Vicente's nine points have been picked up at home this campaign, and a surprise win on Sunday could move them into the top half of the table, as high as eighth.
Gil Vicente Primeira Liga form: LLLLWD
Gil Vicente form (all competitions): LLLWWD
Benfica Primeira Liga form: WWLLWW
Benfica form (all competitions): WWWDWW
Team News
© Reuters
Gil Vicente boss Ricardo Soares's only injury concern is defensive midfielder Diogo Santos, who is still nursing a muscle injury.
Defensive midfielder Joao Afonso saw his fifth yellow card of the season in the last match and will serve a one-match ban this weekend.
Ruben Fernandes, who scored his first goal of the season against Moreirense playing at left-back last weekend, could return to the centre of defence as part of a back three with Ygor Nogueira and Rodrigao.
Benfica's Jean-Clair Todibo (Achilles tendon) and Andre Almeida (cruciate ligament rupture) are both out injured.
Greek goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos is likely to play ahead of Helton Leite, who has been in the starting lineup for the last two matches.
Forward's Luca Waldschmidt and Darwin Nunez are set to remain up front, starting ahead of Swiss striker Haris Seferovic.
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Denis; Nogueira, Rodrigao, Fernandes; Pereira, Mineiro, Goncalves, Talocha; Lourency, Lino, Leautey
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Vlachodimos; Gilberto, Otamendi, Vertonghen, Grimaldo; Rafa, Weigl, Pizzi, Everton; Seferovic, Nunez
We say: Gil Vicente 1-2 Benfica
Gil Vicente have been quite consistent at the back and will likely make it tough for Benfica to break them down. However, the Eagles are keen to ensure that they do not lose ground on their rivals at the top of the table and should have enough quality in the final third to secure a narrow victory on Sunday.
Top betting tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 64.1%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 15.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.24%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Benfica in this match.
