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Wolves logo
Premier League | Gameweek 31
Apr 2, 2022 at 3pm UK
Molineux
Aston Villa logo

Wolves
2 - 1
Aston Villa

Castro (7'), Young (36' og.)
Coady (25'), Castro (66'), Marcal (90+2'), Neto (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Watkins (86' pen.)
McGinn (38'), Young (90+3'), Konsa (90+4')

Preview: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Aston Villa - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having both entered the international break on the back of home defeats, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa will aim to bounce back in Saturday's Premier League West Midlands derby at Molineux.

Bruno Lage's side went down 3-2 to Leeds United in a classic last time out, while the Lions suffered a 1-0 loss to Arsenal in front of their own supporters.


Match preview

Wolverhampton Wanderers manager Bruno Lage before the match on March 13, 2022© Reuters

Five goals, a red card, a spate of injuries and an astonishing comeback - Wolves' meeting with Jesse Marsch's Leeds was one for the ages, but unfortunately for the home crowd, their side was on the wrong end of the scoreline come the full-time whistle.

With the Whites losing no fewer than four players to injury and finding themselves 2-0 down before the hour-mark, Wolves were seemingly set for a comfortable success before Raul Jimenez was controversially given his marching orders, and Leeds produced a phenomenal turnaround through Jack Harrison, Rodrigo and Luke Ayling.

Lage understandably took aim at Kevin Friend for Jimenez's red card on the day, but his side's capitulation at Molineux was all their own making, and it is surely a bridge too far for Wolves to challenge for a top-four finish now after a fourth defeat from six.

This weekend's hosts remain firmly in contention for a European spot as they lie eighth in the table but five points behind fifth-placed Tottenham Hotspur - who have a game in hand - so their Europa League or Europa Conference League fate remains out of their own hands.

Furthermore, Lage's side are nothing if not inconsistent at home - making a habit of winning one then losing one at their Molineux headquarters in the Premier League - and not since December have Wolves drawn a game in the big time.

Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard on March 19, 2022© Reuters

Facing London opposition has not been Steven Gerrard's fixture of choice in the Aston Villa dugout so far, with the Lions suffering back-to-back defeats to two capital sides in West Ham United and most recently Arsenal before the international break.

Bukayo Saka's well-taken effort propelled the Gunners to a 1-0 win at Villa Park last time out, with ex-Arsenal man Emiliano Martinez not doing enough to keep out his former teammate's effort and current Arsenal stopper Bernd Leno being mobbed by his lot after a crucial last-minute stop.

Any hopes of catching up to the European-chasing pack are seemingly dead and buried for Villa, whose main goal now is to consolidate their hold on a top-half spot as they remain ninth in the standings - level on points with Leicester City having played two games more.

While Wolves are yet to draw a league game in 2022, it has been over 12 months since Aston Villa last shared the spoils in a Premier League fixture away from home, so recent history certainly suggests that there will be a winner and loser in this battle.

Before being on the wrong end of a 3-2 scoreline against Leeds, Wolves edged a five-goal thriller with Villa by that margin back in October, and the Lions have only won one of their last five versus Wolves since returning to the Premier League in 2019.

Wolverhampton Wanderers Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Aston Villa Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L



Team News

Wolverhampton Wanderers' Raul Jimenez is shown a red card by referee Kevin Friend on March 18, 2022© Reuters

Wolves will be forced into an attacking reshuffle with Jimenez suspended for Saturday's game, so Hwang Hee-chan ought to link up with Francisco Trincao and Daniel Podence in the final third this weekend.

Midfielder Ruben Neves is fighting to return from a knee injury before the end of the season - Ki-Jana Hoever is keeping him company in the treatment room - while Nelson Semedo and Pedro Neto are both fitness doubts.

Willy Boly was given the nod in defence for the Leeds loss but could make way for the returning Max Kilman this week, as Joao Moutinho and Leander Dendoncker link up in midfield with Neves absent.

As for Villa, Gerrard only has one confirmed absentee to work around in the form of Marvelous Nakamba - who will turn out for the Under-23s on Friday - and Kortney Hause has seemingly recovered from an abdominal problem.

The visiting boss elected to drop Danny Ings in favour of Emiliano Buendia for the defeat to Arsenal but may call upon the ex-Liverpool and Southampton man to return alongside England goalscorer Ollie Watkins here.

Ashley Young - who hit out at Arsenal's celebrations in their 1-0 win last time out - endured a rough afternoon against Bukayo Saka and should drop out for the fit-again Lucas Digne.

Wolverhampton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Sa; Kilman, Coady, Saiss; Jonny, Dendoncker, Moutinho, Ait-Nouri; Trincao, Hwang, Podence

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Luiz, Ramsey; Coutinho; Watkins, Ings


SM words green background

We say: Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-1 Aston Villa

Jimenez and Neves's absences coupled with Neto's fitness woes and an underwhelming spell of form does not spell optimism for Wolves here, but Villa did not enter the international break in glittering form either.

However, Gerrard has plenty of choice when it comes to freshening up his attack and is working with a much fitter squad than Lage, so we can picture Villa returning to winning ways in this derby as Wolves' continental aspirations take yet another hit.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolverhampton Wanderers win with a probability of 37.24%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wolverhampton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolverhampton Wanderers would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Wolves vs Aston Villa

Wolverhampton Wanderers
30.3%
Draw
22.3%
Aston Villa
47.3%
188
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4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
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11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
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14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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