Wales must win and hope Group D rivals Croatia falter in Tuesday night's Euro 2024 qualifying finale, as they host already-qualified Turkey at Cardiff City Stadium.
After a draw in Armenia at the weekend, the Dragons' fate is out of their own hands; meanwhile, their in-form visitors beat Germany in a friendly fixture last time out and are confirmed as group winners.
Match preview
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Although they battled back from conceding an early goal in Yerevan - and survived a few more scares along the way - Saturday's 1-1 draw with Armenia means Wales require maximum points in midweek to have any chance of securing automatic qualification for next year's Euros.
After an own goal in first-half stoppage time cancelled out Lucas Zelarayan's fifth-minute opener, the Dragons slipped two points behind the top two and are left hoping that Croatia - who now occupy second spot in Group D - will slip up at home to Armenia.
Otherwise, even a Welsh victory over Turkey will only be good enough for a playoff place in March, which has all but been assured by their UEFA Nations League ranking.
Wins over rock-bottom Latvia and the Croatians had seen Rob Page's resurgent side stride closer towards a third straight European Championship appearance last month, but a lacklustre display at the weekend leaves their participation in next summer's tournament in some jeopardy.
While reaching a fourth major finals from five remains a distinct possibility, it may now require a more circuitous route to book their ticket to Germany - but nothing has been decided just yet.
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Heading into a prestigious friendly with Euro 2024 hosts Germany on Saturday night, Turkey had already wrapped up qualification for the finals ahead of their last Group D fixture.
After missing out on Qatar 2022, the Crescent-Stars have enjoyed a strong qualifying campaign, picking up 16 points from seven matches so far. Following a seamless start to life under new management, Vincenzo Montella's side sit three points clear at the top of the table, having beaten both Croatia and Latvia in October.
Despite making several changes, and with captain Hakan Calhanoglu unavailable due to illness, Montella built on that momentum by leading his team to a superb 3-2 win over an attacking Germany lineup at the Olympiastadion.
Yusuf Sari's spot kick ultimately split the sides in a five-goal contest, after the Germans had taken an early lead but were then stunned by fine finishes from Ferdi Kadioglu and Juventus youngster Kenan Yildiz. Niclas Fullkrug then levelled the scores shortly after half time, but substitute Sari then squeezed his penalty past Kevin Trapp to secure victory.
Turkey will hope to return to Berlin for next summer's European Championship final, having been eliminated at the group stage in their last two appearances, but finishing their qualifying commitments by beating Wales for a second time is their immediate priority.
Team News
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Rob Page may be tempted to make changes after a below-par performance on a heavy pitch in Yerevan, but despite the quick turnaround between games, his Wales XI should be similar to that which started against Armenia.
Tottenham Hotspur striker Brennan Johnson could be promoted from the bench, though, after missing October's camp due to a hamstring injury and returning to Dragons duty as a substitute on Saturday - David Brooks or Harry Wilson would most likely make way.
Aaron Ramsey is absent again, so Johnson's Spurs teammate Ben Davies retains the captain's armband; Luton Town's Tom Lockyer should join him in the hosts' back three, as Chris Mepham must serve a suspension for accumulated bookings.
Meanwhile, Turkey are set to shuffle their pack again, after the likes of Salih Ozcan, Kerem Akturkoglu and Baris Alper Yilmaz all began their win over Germany on the bench.
Teenager Kenan Yildiz made quite an impression for the Crescent-Stars on his first senior start, so will hope to be retained on the left wing: the German-born starlet has come to the fore while Real Madrid wonderkid Arda Guler remains sidelined by injury.
In the absence of skipper Hakan Calhanoglu, who has stayed in Italy with flu-like symptoms, Adana Demirspor midfielder Emre Akbaba may also start again in Cardiff.
Wales possible starting lineup:
Ward; Lockyer, Rodon, Davies; Roberts, J. James, Ampadu, Williams; Johnson, Wilson; Moore
Turkey possible starting lineup:
Altay; Celik, Bardakci, Kabak, Kadioglu; Akbaba, Ozcan, Yuksek; Akturkoglu, Yilmaz, Yildiz
We say: Wales 1-2 Turkey
After recording their first win in Germany for 72 years, Turkey's confidence is sky-high, while Wales are almost resigned to their fate as playoff hopefuls. The visitors could therefore repeat their win from June's reverse fixture, confirming their status as a team to watch at Euro 2024.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
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