Aiming to move into the Conference League qualification places, Vitoria de Guimaraes play host to Tondela at the Dom Afonso Henriques on Saturday.
The visitors head into the game following a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Sporting Lisbon and will be looking to quickly return to winning ways.
Match preview
© Reuters
Vitoria de Guimaraes returned to winning ways last Saturday when they came from behind to edge out Pacos de Ferreira 2-1 at the Estadio Capital do Movel.
After Denilson's 34th-minute opener put the hosts in front heading into the interval, but Oscar Estupinan and Bruno Duarte netted in the final 20 minutes to turn the game on its head and condemn Pacos de Ferreira to a fourth straight loss.
Prior to that, Pepa's side suffered a fourth-round exit from the Taca de Portugal courtesy of a 3-3 defeat against Moreirense on November 21 before falling to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of high-flying Porto one week later.
With 19 points from 13 games, Vitoria de Guimaraes are currently seventh in the Primeira Liga standings, two points adrift of Estoril Praia in the final Conference League qualification spot.
© Reuters
Tondela, on the other hand, were denied a third win on the bounce in all competitions when they fell to a 2-0 loss against high-flying Sporting Lisbon last time out.
In a one-sided affair at the Estadio Jose Alvalade, Pablo Sarabia broke the deadlock after just 10 minutes to hand the reigning champions the lead heading into the break before Paulinho made sure of the result five minutes into the second half.
Prior to that, CDT Auriverdes claimed a thrilling 4-2 victory over struggling Maritimo before booking their place in the next round of the Taca de Portugal courtesy of a 3-1 win over Leixoes on November 22.
Having picked up 12 points from 12 games, Pako Ayestaran's side are currently 10th in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with 11th-place Boavista, albeit with a game in hand.
While Tondela will be looking to quickly return to winning ways, they face the stern test of taking on an opposing side who have won three of the most recent four meetings between the teams.
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Having spent the last five weeks on the club's injury table through a muscle injury sustained in October's game against Sporting Lisbon, Toni Borevkovic returned to the fold against Pacos de Ferreira last time out and we expect the Croatian defender to retain his spot in the XI.
Ghanaian defender Abdul Mumin is also back available for selection having served his one-match suspension in the aforementioned game after receiving his marching orders against Porto on November 28.
Oscar Estupinan came off the bench to restore parity against Os Pacenses and after a solid all-round performance, the Colombian forward could return to the starting XI on Saturday.
Tondela, meanwhile, will once again take to the pitch without the services of Jota Goncalves after the Portuguese youngster sustained a knee injury 12 minutes into the game against Estoril Praia on September 13.
The trio of Babacar Mbaye, Jose Hernando Rio and Salvador Agra all missed that game against Sporting Lisbon two weeks back due to COVID-19 and are major doubts for this encounter.
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Soares, Fernandes, Amaro, Ferreira; Almeida, Handel, Janvier; Edwards, Duarte, Rochinha
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Khacef, Riol, Sagnan, Almeida; Dantas, Undabarrena, Pedro; Anjos, Dadashov, Murillo
We say: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-1 Tondela
After a slow start to the season, Tondela will head into this one seeking to claim all three points and strengthen their position in the top half of the table. However, they have struggled to get going on the road this term, managing just one win and losing five in six games. It could be a close one to call considering both sides are evenly matched on paper and we anticipate a share of the spoils at full time.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 57.58%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 19.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.58%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.99%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
