For the second time in three editions of the CONCACAF Nations League, the USA and Mexico will meet in the final, which will take place this Sunday at AT&T Stadium.
A dramatic 3-1 victory in extra time enabled the Yanks to advance to the final of this tournament for a third successive occasion, while El Tri had little trouble with Panama, defeating them 3-0.
Match preview
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The US dream of capturing three successive Nations League titles remains intact, as an own goal from Cory Burke levelled their match with the Reggae Boyz deep into stoppage time before they took command in the final 30 minutes.
That was the latest stoppage-time goal for this team since Ricardo Clark scored a winner in the 97th minute of a January 2012 friendly with Venezuela.
Thursday was the fourth time the US men's team had conceded a goal in the first minute of a match, but to their credit, they have managed to come back and earn a result in each of those instances, including three victories.
Before Greg Leigh netted in the early stages of their semi-final encounter on Thursday, the US had gone five successive Nations League matches without conceding on American soil.
Gregg Berhalter's men have emerged victorious in each of their last three appearances in the final of either this tournament or the CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Lately the US have owned the Mexicans in head-to-head matchups, going unbeaten in their last six meetings against them, including a 3-2 victory in extra time in the inaugural Nations League final.
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The Mexicans made a big statement in their semi-final clash with Panama this week, showing they are still a force to be reckoned with in this region.
As a result, Jaime Lozano has guided this team back into the final of this tournament for the first time since its inception in 2019-20.
As impressive as El Tri were on Thursday, consistency has not been their strong suit in recent months, with Mexico failing to win consecutive fixtures since the 2023 Gold Cup.
Since squandering an early 1-0 advantage in the 2019-20 Nations League final, the Mexicans have won their last four matches at this tournament when scoring the opening goal and have not conceded in any of those triumphs.
El Tri have not beaten a side from North America since the 2021 Gold Cup semi-finals, when a late second-half strike by Hector Herrera gave them a 2-1 victory over Canada.
It has been over four years since they last beat the US in their own backyard, claiming a 3-0 win in a 2019 friendly which took place at MetLife Stadium.
Team News
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Sergino Dest is eligible to return from his red-card suspension, as Joe Scally took his place at right-back on Thursday, while Tim Weah made his first appearance of the Nations League this season on Thursday.
Weston McKennie earned his 50th cap in the victory over Jamaica, Antonee Robinson collected his 40th cap and Christian Pulisic captained the team for the 20th time, equalling Clint Dempsey for ninth-most all-time in team history.
Haji Wright replaced Weah just beyond the hour mark of their semi-final, becoming the first substitute in the history of this program to score multiple goals in a knockout match, while Gio Reyna had a pair of assists for only the second time in his national team career.
There were three new faces in the Mexican starting 11 on Thursday who did not begin their second-leg encounter versus Honduras, with Guillermo Ochoa, Julian Araujo and Julian Quinones replacing Luis Malagon, Jorge Sanchez and Hirving Lozano.
Edson Alvarez reached 75 caps with the national team this week, Carlos Rodriguez is two away from 50, Santiago Gimenez can hit 25 this weekend, while Jesus Gallardo is now just three shy of 100.
Goals by Edson Alvarez, Quinones and Orbelin Pineda gave the Mexicans a comfortable semi-final triumph as Ochoa made five stops to collect a clean sheet.
USA possible starting lineup:
Turner; Dest, Ream, Richards, A. Robinson; Adams, Musah, McKennie; Reyna, Pepi, Pulisic
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Aguirre, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Pineda, Alvarez, Chavez; Antuna, Martin, Quinones
We say: USA 2-1 Mexico (extra time)
The Yanks may look sluggish at times, but someone always seems to step up for them when needed, and we believe their attacking depth and psychological edge over Mexico will propel them to a third straight Nations League crown.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Mexico win was 1-0 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
