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[monks data]
USA national football team
Olympic Games Women's Football | Semi-Finals
Aug 2, 2021 at 9am UK
Kashima Soccer Stadium
Canada national football team

USA Women
0 - 1
Canada Women


O'Hara (32')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Fleming (74' pen.)

Preview: USA Women vs. Canada Women - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Olympic Games Women's Football clash between USA Women and Canada Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

USA Women face Canada Women in the Olympic Games semi-finals on Monday, in an intriguing all-North American affair.

Both sides won penalty shootouts in the quarter-finals to reach this stage.


Match preview

Rose Lavelle celebrates scoring for the USA in the 2019 Women's World Cup Final© Reuters

For the four-time World Cup winners and four-time Olympics champions, reaching the semi-finals of major competitions has become second nature to USA.

However, they failed to reach the final four in Brazil five years ago, so have clearly been highly motivated to put that right and win the tournament for a fifth time in only seven appearances.

After squeaking through the group stage with four points from three matches, USA faced a tricky quarter-final tie against the free scoring Netherlands Women on Friday.

Indeed, the Oranje had scored a phenomenal 21 goals in three group games to pip Brazil to top spot in Group F, and head coach Vlatko Andonovski must have been fearing the worst when Vivianne Miedema bagged her ninth goal of the competition to open the scoring in the 18th minute.

However, the Stars and Stripes are generally made of stern stuff, which they showed once again to strike back via Sam Mewis and Lynn Williams in quick succession.

Miedema had other ideas, though, bagging her 10th of the tournament to enforce extra time and penalties. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old missed her side's opening penalty, with USA converting all four to set up an intriguing semi-final against Canada.

Adriana Leon of Canada celebrates after scoring their first goal with teammates on July 27, 2021© Reuters

Canada, meanwhile, are set to compete in their third successive Olympics semi-final, but they will be hoping for even better than the bronze medals they won in 2012 and 2016.

It was fierce rivals USA who edged them out in London in 2012, of course, after a thrilling tie ended 4-3 after extra time.

Bev Priestman, who took over as head coach of Canada last year after a decent spell with England Under-17s, will be confident that her squad's mentality is growing stronger all the time, as evidenced by Friday's surprise penalty shootout victory over Brazil after a goalless affair.

Scoring goals has been a slight problem for Priestman's disciplined side, with four goals for and three against in their four matches suggesting that they will look to hit their forthcoming opponents on the break as often as possible on Monday.

USA Women Olympic Games Women's Football form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W

Canada Women Olympic Games Women's Football form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W



Team News

Alex Morgan pictured celebrating against England on July 2, 2019© Reuters

Alex Morgan's controversial injury-time strike separated the two sides in the 2012 semi-final, but the legendary forward is no longer an automatic pick under Andonovski.

The 32-year-old and Megan Rapinoe are fighting it out with Carli Lloyd and Tobin Heath for spots in attack, having both been used from the substitutes' bench against Netherlands.

However, we expect them to start here given their experience and undoubted quality.

Canada, meanwhile, have less competition for places, meaning Priestman is likely to select an unchanged XI.

Thirty-eight-year-old Christine Sinclair earned her 302nd cap against Brazil on Friday, and she will be desperate to add to her phenomenal goalscoring tally of 187 in order to help her country win their first ever major trophy.

USA Women possible starting lineup:
Naeher; O'Hara, Dahlkemper, Sauerbrunn, Dunn; Horan, Ertz, Mewis; Williams, Morgan, Rapinoe

Canada Women possible starting lineup:
Labbe; Lawrence, Gilles, Buchanan, Chapmann; Scott, Fleming, Quinn; Sinclair; Beckie, Prince


SM words green background

We say: USA Women 2-0 Canada Women

We expect USA to be too strong for their neighbouring rivals on Monday, with their attacking firepower and depth undoubtedly superior.

Canada are disciplined but have struggled to score goals against weaker sides than USA so far this summer, so they could be in store for a third successive bronze medal, which would be no mean feat.






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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA Women win with a probability of 61.13%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Canada Women had a probability of 16.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA Women win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.56%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Canada Women win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: USA Women vs Canada Women

USA Women
72.9%
Draw
15.3%
Canada Women
11.9%
59
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