Tondela host Vitoria de Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga on Friday night hoping to win successive league matches for the first time this campaign.

Guimaraes, meanwhile, who sit six places above Tondela in the league table, have lost two of their last three top-flight matches.

Match preview

Pako Ayestaran, now in charge of Tondela, pictured in 2016 © Reuters

Tondela have recently pulled themselves away from the relegation zone after winning two of their last three league matches, including the 2-0 victory over Santa Clara three weeks ago, which saw them win back-to-back home league games for the first time since April 2019.

Their most recent result was a narrow 1-0 win over third division side Felgueiras in the Taca de Portugal on Sunday.

Head coach Pako Ayestaran is pleased with how his side have responded in recent weeks but understands that several challenges are still to come this campaign.

Tondela, who sit in 12th place in the Primeira Liga, lost both encounters with Vitoria last season, but a victory on Friday could propel the home side above the visitors into fifth place.

A general shot of Vitoria de Guimaraes vs. Sporting Lisbon in June 2020 © Reuters

Vitoria de Guimaraes have lost their last two home league matches against Braga and most recently to Sporting Lisbon, who beat them 4-0 in their last match.

Manager Joao Henriques, who replaced Tiago last month, has led his new side to two wins and two defeats in the Primeira Liga as well as a 7-6 victory on penalties against second-tier side Arouca in the Taca de Portugal following a 0-0 draw after extra time.

Both of Henriques's victories have come away from home and he will be hoping to secure another three points on the road against Tondela at a ground where Vitoria have been successful before, winning 3-1 in September 2019.

Guimaraes have struggled for goals in the top flight, only finding the net four times in their opening seven matches – only Belenenses have scored fewer with three.

Vitoria would move above Rio Ave into fifth with a victory on Friday, level on points with Porto in fourth spot who have a greater goal difference.

Tondela Primeira Liga form: LLDWLW
Tondela form (all competitions): LDWLWW

Vitoria de Guimaraes Primeira Liga form: DWWLWL
Vitoria de Guimaraes form (all competitions): WWLWLW

Team News

Vitoria's Bruno Duarte celebrates scoring their first goal against Arsenal on November 6, 2019 © Reuters

Tondela boss Pako Ayestaran could adopt the 3-5-2 formation once again, which was used in the 2-0 victory over Santa Clara.

Striker Tomislav Strkalj could return to the starting lineup which would see Mario Gonzalez, who scored against Santa Clara, drop to the bench.

English duo Easah Suliman and Marcus Edwards are set to remain in the Vitoria de Guimaraes starting lineup.

Champions League winner and former Porto winger Ricardo Quaresma, who has yet to score this campaign, should also keep his place in the starting XI.

Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Medioub, Tavares, Martinez; Murillo, Pedro, Augusto, Ferreira; Agra, Barbosa; Strkalj

Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Sacko, Fernandes, Suliman, Silvio; Poha, Agu, Andre; Edwards, Duarte, Quaresma

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We say: Tondela 1-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes

Vitoria de Guimaraes have won five of the last six matches against Tondela, however the home side have begun to find their form and could make it difficult for the visitors on Friday night.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 55.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 19.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.52%) and 1-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.