Sporting Lisbon and Santa Clara draw the curtain on their 2021-2022 Primeira Liga campaign when they go head to head at the Estadio Jose Alvalade on Saturday.
Os Acoreanos will be looking to complete an impressive league double over the hosts having claimed a 3-2 victory when the sides met back in January's reverse fixture.
Match preview
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Sporting Lisbon put on a clinic at the Estadio Municipal de Portimao where they fought back from behind to snatch a 3-2 victory over Portimonense last Saturday.
Carlinhos and Welinton Junior scored to cancel out Bruno Tabata's 12th-minute opener and hand Portimonense a first-half lead, but substitute Pablo Sarabia scored twice in a five-minute spell to turn the tie around and hand the visitors all three points.
Sporting Lisbon have now won each of their last three outings, scoring 10 goals and conceding three since a 1-0 defeat at the hands of rivals Porto in the second leg of their cup semi-final clash on April 21.
With 82 points from 33 games, Ruben Amorim's side have confirmed their place in next season's Champions League as they sit second in the Primeira Liga standings, 11 points above third-placed Benfica in the playoff spot.
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Santa Clara, meanwhile, maintained their fine run of results last time when they claimed a comfortable 2-0 victory over 10-man Pacos de Ferreira.
In a one-sided affair at the Estadio de Sao Miguel, Lincoln put Os Acoreanos ahead in the ninth minute before Ricardinho put the results beyond doubt with a 67th-minute strike.
Santa Clara head into the weekend unbeaten in five consecutive outings, picking up two wins and three draws, while they have lost just twice in the league since the turn of the year.
Off the back of a sixth-placed finish last season, Mario Silva's men currently sit seventh in the standings with 40 points from 33 games, six points off their 2020-2021 tally with one game left to play.
While Santa Clara will look to close out their campaign on a high and pick up two straight league wins for the first time since February, next up is the daunting task of taking on the Leoes at the Estadio Jose Alvalade, where they have lost each of their four visits since 2019.
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Team News
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Sporting Lisbon will be without the services of veteran full-back Zouhair Feddal, who has been in and out of the squad in recent weeks as he battles a reoccurring injury.
Sarabia took his goal tally to 14 with his second-half brace against Portimonense and we expect the Paris Saint-Germain loanee to return to the starting XI on Saturday.
He should be joined in attack by Portuguese forward Pedro Goncalves and 25-year-old Tabata, who will push for just his second starting appearance of the season after getting on the scoresheet last weekend.
As for Santa Clara veteran goalkeeper Marco Pereira is set to sit out his third straight game through injury, meaning Ricardo Fernandes should start between the sticks once again.
He is joined on Os Acoreanos' injury table by Portuguese midfielder Costinha, who has been out of action since last August through an Achilles tendon injury.
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Adnan; Inacio, Neto, Feddal; Reis, Nunes, Ugarte, Porro; Goncalves, Tabata, Sarabia
Santa Clara possible starting lineup:
Pereira; Sagna, Villanueva, Boateng, Mansur; Carvalho, Nene; Costa, Ricardinho, Allano; Tagawa
We say: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Santa Clara
Buoyed by their victory over Pacos de Ferreira, Santa Clara will head into the weekend with renewed confidence as they look to end their losing streak at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. However, Sporting Lisbon head into the game in superb form and will be seeking to close out their season on a high. We predict a one-sided affair with the hosts claiming all three points.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.34%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 8.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.69%) and 3-0 (10.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.5%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
