South Africa and Zambia will battle it out for a place in the 2023 COSAFA Cup final when they face off at the Moses Mabhida Stadium on Friday.
Awaiting the winners of this tie in Sunday's grand finale is one of Malawi or Lesotho, who go head-to-head in the other last-four encounter.
Match preview
South Africa wrapped up their group-stage campaign with a hard-fought 2-1 victory over the Sihlangu Semnikati of Eswatini on Tuesday evening.
Morena Ramoreboli's men fell behind to Bongwa Matsebula's opener five minutes into the second half before a double from Tshegofatso Mabasa turned the game on its head.
As a result, the Bafana Bafana have finished top of Group A with seven points from three matches to book their place in the knockout phase.
Next up is the challenge of an opposing outfit who have only lost one of the last six editions of this fixture across all competitions since 2017.
Aiming to replicate their COSAFA Cup performance in 2021 where they emerged victorious, this year's hosts need no further motivation to go all the way in front of their fans this time around.
Zambia saw off the threat of Seychelles to claim an emphatic 4-2 victory in Tuesday's group-stage finale at the Princess Magogo Stadium in Durban.
Avram Grant's men raced to a commanding lead thanks to strikes from Albert Kangwanda, Kiliam Kanguluma, Golden Mashata and Fredrick Mulambia after which Brandon Labrosse and Warren Mellie halved the deficit.
With six points from three matches, the Chipolopolo finished second in Group B but made it through to the knockout phase as the best-ranked runners-up.
Having found the back of the net six times across their last two matches, Zambia will be looking to put on another impressive display in front of goal.
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- W
- W
Team News
After coming off the bench to good effect against Eswatini, Tshegofatso Mabasa could be handed the nod to feature right from the off here.
Bonginkosi Makume had to make do with a place on the bench in the aforementioned game, but the 27-year-old will be pushing for a return to the XI.
Abraham Siankombo was hauled off with an injury scare less than half an hour into Zambia's last outing, making the forward a major doubt for this one.
Should Siankombo be deemed unfit to participate, Golden Mashata is the favourite to come into the starting lineup for what would be his second start of the tournament.
South Africa possible starting lineup:
Barr; Mohamme, Allan, Sikhakhane; Kapinga, Mthethwa, Lakay, Cele; Human, Rayners, Letsoalo
Zambia possible starting lineup:
Mulenga; Mkandawire, Chabala, Kanguluma, Chishimba; Kangwanda, Kapumbu, Mulambia; Mashata, Moyela, Kampamba
We say: South Africa 2-1 Zambia
South Africa will be aiming to make home advantage count as they have done all-tournament long to leave them 90 minutes from a place in the final. We are backing them to just about get the job done come the sound of the final whistle in what should be a game of fine margins.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 44.73%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Zambia had a probability of 27.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for a Zambia win it was 0-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
