Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 28, 2023 at 5pm UK

National Complex

Liberia
1 - 2
South Africa

Jebor (35')
Balde (24')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Lepasa (19'), Mayambela (53')
Lepasa (48'), Sithole (76'), Mailula (90'), Mokoena (90+4')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Liberia and South Africa.

Form, Standings, Stats

Liberia

Last Game: South Africa 2-2 Liberia
Friday, March 24 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

South Africa

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: South Africa 2-2 Liberia
Friday, March 24 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	9
2	Ivory Coast	3	3	6
3	South Africa	3	-1	3
4	Namibia	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Africa win with a probability of 65.07%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Liberia had a probability of 12.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a South Africa win was 0-1 with a probability of 17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.7%) and 1-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Liberia win it was 1-0 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that South Africa would win this match.

Result
Liberia	Draw	South Africa
12.19% ( -0.31)	22.74% ( -0.39)	65.07% ( 0.7)

Both teams to score 36.66% (

0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.91% (

0.7)

59.09% (

-0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.46% (

0.54)

79.54% (

-0.54)

Liberia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.57% (

-0.11)

55.43% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.86% (

-0.07)

88.14% (

0.06)

South Africa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.26% (

0.51)

17.74% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.58% (

0.87)

48.42% (

-0.87)

Score Analysis

Liberia 12.19%

South Africa 65.07%

Draw 22.73%

Liberia	Draw	South Africa
1-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 2.96% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.71% Total : 12.19%	1-1 @ 10.03% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 9.83% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 2.56% Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.73%	0-1 @ 17% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 14.7% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 8.68% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 8.48% ( 0.2) 1-3 @ 5% ( 0.1) 0-4 @ 3.66% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 2.16% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.02) 0-5 @ 1.27% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.65% Total : 65.07%