Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 27

Mar 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Dacia Arena

Udinese
3 - 1
AC Milan

Pereyra (9'), Beto (45+6'), Ehizibue (70')
Perez (27'), Walace (68'), Becao (90+3'), Ebosele (90')
Sottil (45+3')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Ibrahimovic (45+4' pen.)
Kalulu (61'), Tonali (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Udinese and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Udinese

All competitions

Last Game: Empoli 0-1 Udinese
Saturday, March 11 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 1-1 Salernitana
Monday, March 13 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

While Milan have been below their best for some time now, they can get back to winning ways on Saturday evening, when their hosts will seek just a fourth home success of the season. This contest could go all the way to the wire, though, as only Napoli have scored more goals than either side (both 11) during the last 15 minutes of play. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 36.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Udinese would win this match.

Result
Udinese	Draw	AC Milan
37.58% ( 0.12)	25.61% ( 0.03)	36.8% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 55.59% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.55% (

-0.15)

48.45% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.42% (

-0.14)

70.58% (

0.14)

Udinese Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.77% (

-0)

25.22% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.03% (

-0.01)

59.97% (

0.01)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.34% (

-0.16)

25.66% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.43% (

-0.22)

60.56% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Udinese 37.58%

AC Milan 36.8%

Draw 25.6%

Udinese	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.83% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.63% Total : 37.58%	1-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.6%	0-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.54% Total : 36.8%