Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 36.05%. A win for Real Zaragoza had a probability of 35.24% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.57%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Real Zaragoza win was 1-0 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.