Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 39.36%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 29.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.09%) and 2-1 (7.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.95%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ponferradina would win this match.