Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amorebieta win with a probability of 36.4%. A win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amorebieta win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.25%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 (12.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.