The San Jose Earthquakes will try to end a 14-match winless run against the Seattle Sounders when they host the Western Conference leaders on Wednesday at PayPal Park.
A 2-0 win in the California Clasico over Los Angeles FC has the Goonies within three points of a playoff berth, while the Sounders picked up a big three points versus Sporting Kansas City to move back into first-place in the West.
Match preview
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Throughout the 2021 campaign, we have usually seen two different San Jose sides, one with an attack-minded approach where they can score plenty of goals or one built on patience and destabilizing their opponents by slowing the game down to a virtual crawl.
This past weekend for one of the first times this year, Matias Almeyda saw his team execute both of those styles efficiently, coming away with a big victory and putting themselves right back into playoff contention.
On Wednesday, they have a chance to win a third consecutive fixture, which would be their longest winning streak of the season, but more than that, a victory versus Seattle would bury a lot of bad memories for this team, who have not beaten the Sounders since 2015.
In 2020 the Quakes seemed to find their stride near the end of the regular season earning 19 points in their final 10 games, and they are hoping that they have found their groove this year with eight matches remaining.
Beating the Rave Green could be just what they need mentally for the stretch run, with a critical road trip on the horizon, facing the Vancouver Whitecaps and then LAFC, two teams who are tied with them on 33 points at the moment.
One stat to be aware of with San Jose is the fact that they have a goal difference of -4 right now, which could mean a lot at the end of the season with things so tight at the moment as that is the worst goals for goals against ratio among Western Conference sides from sixth place to 10th.
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Just when you think their reign at the top might fade away, the Seattle Sounders come out and show that they are still the class of the Western Conference.
Brian Schmetzer has seen his team respond well in the face of adversity since their opening regular season fixture this year, and they did it once again on Sunday, beating their nearest competitors in the Conference, Sporting KC.
A week after a physically and emotionally draining defeat to Leon in the Leagues Cup final, the Rave Green were the sharper side this past weekend as they capitalized on some lazy giveaways by Kansas City.
It takes a lot of intelligence and confidence to win consistently with so many new faces throughout the year, not to mention the fact that Schmetzer changed the formation on Sunday to a 3-5-2 after deploying a 3-4-2-1 for most of their matches over the past couple of months.
Their victory over the Wizards put an end to their two-game winless run away from home in all competitions, and they will be keen to shut down a Quakes side who they have had their way with lately, holding them off the scoreboard in their last four trips to Northern California.
A short turnaround should not be an issue for this side, who have not had a whole week to rest in between games since the international break at the end of August.
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Team News
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Quakes goalkeeper JT Marcinkowski stopped all three shots that he faced over the weekend for his ninth career clean sheet, and he can move into a tie for fifth all-time with Daniel Vega, the Goonies' reserve keeper.
Benji Kikanovic got the ball rolling for his side on Saturday, scoring three minutes into the match, while Javier Lopez is on fire at the moment, scoring yet again this past weekend, his sixth goal in his last three games.
Cristian Espinoza will have to sit this one out due to a yellow card suspension, while Jeremy Ebobisse is not expected to play due to a concussion and Tanner Beason is questionable with a left thigh problem.
Sounders midfielder Cristian Roldan is starting to hit his stride with goals in his last two matches in all competitions, while also doing a great job in terms of pass distribution and helping his team control the pace of the game on Sunday.
Goalkeeper Stefan Frei will want to shake off a pair of poor performances, conceding on three of the four shots that he faced in the Leagues Cup final and then allowing the Wizards back into the game, mishandling what appeared to be a routine save off a Johnny Russell volley.
Jordan Morris and Jordy Delem remain sidelined with ACL injuries, Nicolas Lodeiro is still recovering from right knee surgery, and Nicolas Benezet is still suffering the effects of a left hip flexor strain.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Marie, Nathan, Alanis, M. Lopez; Judson, Yueill; Fierro, Remedi, J. Lopez; Kikanovic
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Frei; O'Neill, Arreaga, Andrade; Smith, Rowe, Paulo, Bruin; C. Roldan; Ruidiaz, Montero
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Seattle Sounders
This is a tough match to call as both teams are coming off strong performances at the weekend, and both are in some extremely close races, the Quakes for a playoff spot and the Sounders for first in the Conference.
We will give the Goonies a slight edge because they seem to realize that each game could mean their season, while every mistake could be their last, and that kind of desperation could be just what they need to climb above that playoff line.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Seattle Sounders win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
