Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 37.56%. A win for Ural Yekaterinburg had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Ural Yekaterinburg win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.