Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 30, 2023 at 8.15pm UK

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
2 - 1
Chaves

Silva (18' pen.), Safira (90+7')
Bamba (22'), Silva (60'), Silva (79')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Abass (90+5')
Ponck (30'), Langa (58'), Guimaraes (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Chaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Guimaraes 0-1 Porto
Saturday, January 21 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Chaves

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Boavista 1-1 Chaves
Monday, January 23 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-1 Chaves

It would not be too much of a surprise if Chaves record a fourth consecutive 1-1 draw in this one given how close the sides are in the table and in similar ropey form. Guimaraes have won the last three head-to-heads though, and will hope that can give them the edge. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Chaves
44.62% ( 0.09)	27.32% ( -0.04)	28.06% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 47.42% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.38% (

0.14)

57.62% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.61% (

0.11)

78.39% (

-0.12)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.29% (

0.11)

25.7% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.37% (

0.15)

60.62% (

-0.15)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.82% (

0.04)

36.17% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.04% (

0.04)

72.96% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 44.62%

Chaves 28.06%

Draw 27.32%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Chaves
1-0 @ 12.63% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.18% Total : 44.62%	1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.32%	0-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.53% 0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.92% Total : 28.06%

How you voted: Guimaraes vs Chaves

Vitoria de Guimaraes

49.3%

Draw

42.0%

Chaves

8.7%

Head to Head

Aug 7, 2022 8.30pm

Chaves

0-1

Guimaraes

Pedro Fortes Bachiessa (16'), Monte (63')

Silva (45+3')
Villanueva (16'), Maga (18'), Bamba (23'), Sa (46'), Amaro (54'), Silva (82'), Varela (83'), Salgueiro Pains (90')
Semedo (82'), Salgueiro Pains (90+5')

Apr 6, 2019 6pm

Guimaraes

4-0

Chaves

Wakaso (4'), Toze (11' pen.), Rochinha (36'), Guedes (80')

Bressan (65')

Dec 2, 2018 5.30pm

Chaves

0-1

Guimaraes

Eustaquio (86')

Davidson (36')