Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 50.74%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 22.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.