Rio Ave entertain Tondela in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Tuesday afternoon as both teams aim to put more distance between themselves and the bottom three.
The hosts drew 0-0 with Nacional last time out, while Pako Ayestaran's men were defeated 2-1 by Pacos Ferreira.
Match preview
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Vilacondenses are currently sitting in 14th position in the top-flight standings after picking up 16 points from their opening 17 league outings.
The Estadio dos Arcos outfit have been struggling of late and are winless in their last five matches in all competitions.
Putting the ball in the back of the net has been the major issue for Miguel Cardoso's men this season. Their meagre goal tally of just 11 efforts means they have the second-worst attacking record in the division.
Their recent struggles have seen them slip down the table and they are now only two points and two places above Boavista, who occupy the relegation playoff place.
Rio Ave finished fifth last season but have fallen a long way in a short space of time, and another defeat in midweek could have severe consequences.
The visitors have been picking up some important victories in the last few weeks and have moved up to 10th in the Primeira Liga as a result.
Despite their lofty status, Tondela are only two points better off than Rio Ave and could still easily be dragged back into the drop zone, such is the tight and congested nature of the division this season.
The Estadio Joao Cardoso outfit have been conceding too many goals throughout 2020-21, with their defensive record being the third-worst in the division.
A win on Tuesday could open up some serious daylight between the CDT Auriverdes and the drop zone, and they will see this game as a good opportunity to do just that, given their upcoming opponents' woes.
Rio Ave Primeira Liga form: LWDLLD
Rio Ave form (all competitions): WLDLLD
Tondela Primeira Liga form: WLWLWL
Team News
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Rio Ave will be without Brazilian right-back Junio once again as the 23-year-old defender continues to recover from a fractured fibula.
He is joined in the treatment room by defensive midfielder Nikola Jambor and centre-forward Andre Pereira, who is facing a lengthy spell on the sidelines after sustaining a cruciate ligament injury.
Tondela will be boosted by the return of defensive duo Bebeto and Enzo Martinez Suarez after the pair served their one-match suspensions last time out.
However, Ayestaran will still be without goalkeeper Joel Sousa, who tested positive for COVID-19 and remains in self-isolation.
Rio Ave possible starting lineup:
Kieszek; Pinto, Borevkovic, Santos, Coentrao; Tarantini, Pele, Guga; Geraldes, Jeronimo, Gelson
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Niasse; Ferreira, Alves, Medioub, Almeida; Grau, Augusto, Pedro; Agra, Gonzalez, Murillo
We say: Rio Ave 1-2 Tondela
We fancy this game to go true to form, meaning that Tondela will come away with a precious three points. The hosts have been struggling to score goals all season, and we think that could be their downfall once again on Tuesday.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 50.74%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 22.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.49%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rio Ave would win this match.
