Primeira Liga | Gameweek 16

Jan 8, 2024 at 8.15pm UK

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense
1 - 4
Casa Pia

Aias (14')
Camacho (40'), Antonisse (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Soma (18'), Cardoso (26', 56'), Nunes (39')
Cardoso (35'), Segovia (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Moreirense and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Vizela 0-0 Moreirense
Saturday, December 23 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Casa Pia 1-3 Braga
Saturday, December 30 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Moreirense 1-0 Casa Pia

Moreirense have got into the habit of keeping teams out and picking up points regularly, especially against those below them, and while it may be gritty, the hosts should get the three points here. Seven clean sheets in 10 games suggests Casa Pia may find it difficult to break Moreirense down, and their meagre 14 goals so far this season does not provide much more encouragement. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 50.92%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 24.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.

Result
Moreirense	Draw	Casa Pia
50.92% ( -0.25)	24.97% ( 0.02)	24.11% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 51.03% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.68% (

0.09)

51.32% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.85% (

0.08)

73.15% (

-0.08)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.84% (

-0.06)

20.16% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.56% (

-0.1)

52.44% (

0.11)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.91% (

0.25)

36.09% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.13% (

0.25)

72.87% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Moreirense 50.92%

Casa Pia 24.11%

Draw 24.97%

Moreirense	Draw	Casa Pia
1-0 @ 11.65% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.33% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 5.08% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 2.72% Total : 50.92%	1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.98% Total : 24.97%	0-1 @ 7.41% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.88% Total : 24.11%