Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (9.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Arouca |
32.04% ( 0.27) | 26.63% ( 0.27) | 41.33% ( -0.54) |
Both teams to score 51.35% ( -0.74) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.52% ( -0.99) | 53.48% ( 1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25% ( -0.85) | 75% ( 0.85) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.95% ( -0.31) | 31.05% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.63% ( -0.37) | 67.37% ( 0.37) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.48% ( -0.73) | 25.52% ( 0.73) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.63% ( -1) | 60.37% ( 1.01) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 9.27% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.99% Total : 32.04% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 10.82% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 8.64% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.38% Total : 41.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
3 | Benfica | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 35 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
15 | Nacional | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |