Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Braga had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 1-0 (8.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Braga win it was 1-2 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Benfica in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Benfica.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
59.87% ( 0.64) | 20.45% ( 0.05) | 19.67% ( -0.7) |
Both teams to score 59.87% ( -1.42) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.31% ( -1.31) | 36.69% ( 1.3) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.15% ( -1.43) | 58.85% ( 1.43) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.03% ( -0.23) | 11.96% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.63% ( -0.48) | 37.36% ( 0.48) |
Braga Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.01% ( -1.43) | 31.99% ( 1.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.55% ( -1.67) | 68.45% ( 1.66) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Braga |
2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( 0.4) 1-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 3.7% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.27% Total : 59.87% | 1-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.25% Total : 20.45% | 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 4.36% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.47% Total : 19.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 38 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
3 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 23 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
12 | Estrela Amadora | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
14 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
15 | Nacional | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 13 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |