Primeira Liga | Gameweek 15

Jan 7, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
2 - 0
Estoril

Dabbagh (28', 64')
Ruiz (74'), Quaresma (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lea Siliki (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 5-1 Arouca
Wednesday, December 28 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 0-1 Famalicao
Thursday, December 15 at 8pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Arouca 1-0 Estoril Praia

Despite the heavy defeat last week to Porto, we are siding with the hosts in this one. Arouca have won three of their last five games across all competitions, so they come into this match in better form than their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
35.35% ( -0.04)	28.02% ( -0.08)	36.63% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 47.74% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.68% (

0.29)

58.32% (

-0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.06% (

0.23)

78.94% (

-0.23)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.69% (

0.12)

31.31% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.33% (

0.14)

67.67% (

-0.14)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.5% (

0.22)

30.5% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.28% (

0.26)

66.72% (

-0.26)

Score Analysis

Arouca 35.34%

Estoril Praia 36.62%

Draw 28.01%

Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 11.08% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.97% Total : 35.34%	1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.76% Total : 28.01%	0-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.27% Total : 36.62%