Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 38.86% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-2 (5.19%) and 3-1 (4.99%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-21s would win this match.