Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-21s win with a probability of 59.62%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 21.28% and a draw had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.22%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (5.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-21s would win this match.