Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.15%) and 2-3 (4.98%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Stoke City Under-21s in this match.

Result
Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Stoke City Under-21s
37.53% ( 1.47)	20.74% ( 0.28)	41.73% ( -1.74)

Both teams to score 74.47% (

-0.83)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

75.87% (

-1.14)

24.13% (

1.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

56.23% (

-1.53)

43.77% (

1.53)

Derby County Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.55% (

0.05)

14.44% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.61% (

0.09)

42.39% (

-0.09)

Stoke City Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.04% (

-1.02)

12.96% (

1.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.56% (

-2.12)

39.44% (

2.12)

Score Analysis

Derby County Under-21s 37.53%

Stoke City Under-21s 41.73%

Draw 20.74%

Derby County Under-21s	Draw	Stoke City Under-21s
2-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.2) 1-0 @ 3.62% ( 0.28) 2-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.28) 4-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.26% ( 0.18) 4-1 @ 2.23% ( 0.1) 4-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.09% ( 0.09) Other @ 4.49% Total : 37.53%	1-1 @ 7.4% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 7.32% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.94% Total : 20.74%	1-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.2) 2-3 @ 4.98% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.15) 0-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 2.63% ( -0.21) 2-4 @ 2.55% ( -0.2) 3-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.13) 0-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.11) 1-5 @ 1.08% ( -0.13) 2-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.35% Total : 41.73%